MOSTLY FOOTBALL: Harte must take risks if he is to topple the Dubs

Ten years after their last All-Ireland success, Tyrone must replicate the adventure they showed on that occasion if they are to beat Dublin, writes Michael Hannon.

Dublin are playing Tyrone, in what is manager Jim Gavin’s fourth all Ireland final in a row, and their fifth in six years. And, for a small cohort of players like Cluxton, McAuley, Flynn, McMahon, McManamon and Brogan, should they see action they will be playing in their sixth final in eight years. 
Such has been the regeneration process the team has undergone, Gavin has seamlessly managed to create what is essentially a new and winning side without ever letting standards drop over the best part of half a decade. That just might be his greatest managerial achievement.
Kerry in the noughties were regularly appearing in All-Ireland finals and you got the sense that the miles on the clock might leave them vulnerable when they came up against a side like Tyrone, especially in 2008. 
They were raging hot favourites with the bookies before that game but Mickey Harte won the battle on the sideline that day and Tyrone secured their third All-Ireland title in five years. 
The thing about that Tyrone side, unlike the 2005 team, is that player for player they weren’t actually better than Kerry. The 2005 side were superbly talented but by the time 2008 came round they had lost some key personnel to retirement and injuries, while other players had completely lost form. 
In my view Kerry had got stronger on the field but weaker on the line. Mickey Harte managed to get the absolute best out of Tyrone and they deserved to win that final. Pat O’Shea was managing that Kerry team, his second year in charge, and with Jack O’Connor’s win in 2006, to go with O’Shea’s victory in 2007, the Kingdom were going for a historic three in a row. 
So there are some similarities between the task facing Harte’s teams, with the current crop standing in the way of Gavin’s side making it four titles on the trot.
That 2008 title was Harte close to his finest hour, moving Sean Cavanagh to full-forward when most expected him to relocate him to midfield to take on Darragh Ó Sé. 
In the end, Cavanagh won Man of the Match, kicking four points from play. Harte also put both McMahon brothers into the full back line to deal with the twin towers of Kieran Donaghy and Tommy Walsh, another successful move. 
In the intervening years Harte has been made somewhat tactically irrelevant, first by the advent of Jim McGuinness football coming out of Donegal and then with the arrival of Jim Gavin in Dublin.
Harte, the great innovator, has been creatively out-thought by these coaches, and a lot of what he has done has seemed to come from the copy and paste manual of coaching. 
Cluxton popped over a few frees, Harte decided to try his goalkeeper to take them and Niall Morgan now has more wides to his name than any other keeper in the history of gaelic football. 
Every half chance saw him wheeled out, and that was primarily because they didn’t have a forward unit who knew how to break down a mass defence. Every difficult free was handed over to Morgan in a hit and hope mission that looked badly misguided as a viable attacking option. 
Because without fully appreciating the nuances of Donegal’s approach, Harte tried to replicate McGuinness’ men, but it had a negative effect on their attacking play. It took them a full three seasons before the penny seemed to click with the panel as to how to counter-attack once they had committed to getting 14 men back behind the ball. 

Change in approach
The qualifier run of 2015, in particular the round 3 game against Tipperary and the round 4 victory over Sligo, saw a metamorphosis take place, from adequately compact to dangerously potent, in their adopted approach. 
That’s when things started to change for Tyrone. They now had a defensive gameplan with an excellent counter-attacking approach, that left them in a position whereby, on their day, they could beat any county in Ireland, except a rapidly developing Dublin. 
They didn’t know this of course, and after two years of avoiding each other, they found out pretty harshly on Sunday August 27, 2017 in last years semi final - another seminal moment. 
The Super 8s have been good for them because this year they have got to stress test themselves against the All-Ireland champions. I made this point about Galway earlier in the year, when they had the option of avoiding Dublin in an All-Ireland semi-final, that if they failed to play Jim Gavin’s team this season then it will have been a wasted year in terms of developing a side to win an All-Ireland. The only way to beat them is to play them repeatedly, and to learn from each encounter, much like Mayo have done over the past five years. 
Stephen Rochford’s men for example have evolved to have a game plan that gives them a chance of beating Dublin, but ironically also gives every other side they play a chance of beating Mayo. 
Tyrone have a game plan to beat everyone else, the question now is do they have a separate one to beat Dublin? The signs in their past few games are that they have at least been thinking about this, and are preparing an alternative approach. 
With 15 minutes to go against Dublin in Healy Park they changed style and looked to turn the ball over higher up the field. They managed it with some success. 
Against Donegal, they did likewise and this time played the best 25 minutes of football they’ve managed under Harte in the past five years. Crucially, Colm Cavanagh, who was left to sweep,with no extra help around him, got to show what a good defender he is. 
This in many ways mirrors the way Dublin operate with Cian O’Sullivan dropping and the remaining two midfielders and six forwards working to cover the opposition's nine other outfield players. 
Last year, after Cluxton beat the Tyrone press with his first kick-out, Tyrone backed off, scared at the consequences but still confident that Dublin had to break them down, and thinking that would be their chance to get the ball back. It didn’t quite work out that way. 
This year I can see them pressing Cluxton more or less for the full game, and if they concede a score or two because of it then so be it, that’s the risk that comes with the territory. 
Cluxton can’t kick it as long as Monaghan's Rory Beggan and they managed that threat okay. 
In some ways this game will show us if Harte still has the ability and the bravery to innovate. They could do something really different, like concede the kick out but then swarm up field to outnumber and dispossess Dublin after Cluxton goes short. Something like that just might throw Jim Gavin’s men, who look so comfortable dealing with everything else that comes at them these days. 

Game plan
Here’s the crux of the issue for Tyrone and everyone else playing Dublin. The game plan so far proven to be most effective against the Dubs is the one they use themselves. Therefore the winning of the game can become a question of who has the best players? The answer to that question, as Mayo have found out, is also Dublin. 
Can Harte throw away the copy and paste manual he’s been using and devise something different that we’ve yet to see from anyone? 
If the narrowing of the pitch in Omagh tells us anything it’s that Harte’s brain is still working just fine, but this is about more than just the head. 
Narrowing of the pitch doesn’t gamble much, it’s a safe, risk-free bet but not something they can do in Croke Park. 
Harte, in 2008, took calculated risks, and that proved to be enough to get them the win. My gut feeling is this time round he has to take a substantial risk if they’re going to be victorious. I can’t see that happening. 
Dublin should win this game, but in keeping with their recent history in all Ireland finals, will do so only by a few points. Dublin by three.