'Fifty fifty' chances in the count centre

In the count centre Cllr Niall Smith stands along the sides analysing the state of play for cousin Deputy Niamh Smyth.

With second count figures just announced, there are still five seats to play for. He outlines it’s too early to predict what will happen but says it is “fifty fifty”.

Cllr Smith says “hopefully” Deputy Smyth proves transfer friendly, mentioning Independent Ireland’s Shane P. O’Reilly and Aontú’s Sarah O’Reilly as possible transfers to Deputy Smyth. There are still five candidates in the race in the east Cavan area.

“With all the independents, it's very hard to know where second and third will go,” he outlines.

“She’s not in a bad place,” he says.

He believes Aontú’s Sarah O’Reilly “would be transfer friendly too” and predicts it is “between the two of them.”

“If Sarah’s ahead of Niamh, Niamh will put Sarah in and if Niamh’s ahead of Sarah, Sarah will put Niamh in,” he says.

Looking at the Fine Gael cohort, Cllr Smith outlines there is “not much in the difference” between Cllr Carmel Brady and Cllr TP O’Reilly. He believes Cllr Brady’s elimination before Cllr O’Reilly would give Deputy Smyth “a better chance.”

The current state of play after the second count in Cavan Monaghan shows Matt Carthy (SF) number 1, Cathy Bennett (SF) number 2, Brendan Smith (FF) number 3, Pauline Tully number (SF) 4, Robbie Gallager (FF) number 5, David Maxwell (FG) number 6 and Niamh Smyth (FF) number 7 and Sarah O'Reilly (Aon) number 8.