Win is a tall order but Cavan must aim to compete

Preview

Damien Donohoe

This June bank holiday Saturday evening, the All-Ireland champions are coming to Kingspan Breffni for round two of the All-Ireland series and predictions are that there will be a maximum of 12,000 people at it. There were 16,331 watching when they met in February 2017 for the league opener so the desire to see these sides play appears to have dropped for some reason.

There are a number of factors at play with attendances right now from the number of games to the timing of those games, the marketing of the product and the lack of support acts (ie curtain-raisers) for the main event. The days of every championship game drawing big crowds appear to be a thing of the past.

For fans of Gaelic football, the chance to watch the best team in the game at the minute play in our backyard shouldn’t be missed. This Dublin team do something that is incredibly difficult in sport, they consistently perform to a high level. They bring intensity when they have the ball and when they are defending and their skill execution level is excellent.

Dublin’s stats, according to Gaelic Statsman on X, are remarkably consistent. Against Roscommon, they created 32 scoring chances and took 21 (65%) of them and against Louth in the Leinster final they created 32 chances and took 20 (62%) of them. Across the 12 games they’ve played this year in league and championship, they have scored an average of 19.8 times per game.

There have only been two games this year that they haven’t scored a goal which came in rounds two and six of the league against Mayo and Galway but they have managed to maintain an average of 1.8 goals per game. They are scoring an average of 18 points per game this season with 18 points against Tyrone in the final league game being the lowest they sent over the bar in the last seven games.

Dublin have lost four of their 12 games in league and championship this season but only once in those four games have they scored fewer times than their opponents and that was against Derry in Celtic park in the league. That game was also Dublin’s lowest scoring total this season of 1-11.

Defensively, their consistency is of equal measure. They conceded 13 scores from 19 shots against Roscommon and 14 scores from 19 shots against Louth which resulted in a 65% conversion rate for Roscommon and a 62% rate for Louth. The average number of scores Dublin have conceded this year is 13.9 per game while keeping a clean sheet on five occasions. They have conceded an average of a goal a game and 12.9 points and have an average winning margin of 7.6 points per game.

So why look at all the averages of Dublin’s season so far? Well, as much as I’d love to be able to say we can win this game, I can’t. So we need to find measurable targets we can chase that might give us a chance of an upset but in the absences of a positive result, will show some level of progress or improvement.

There will be a few decisions to be made ahead of the game and one will be whether or not to go after Dublin’s kick-outs or not. Both Louth and Roscommon stepped off Cluxton’s restarts but in different ways.

Louth retreated right back to their own 45-metre line while Roscommon allowed Dublin have their full-back line free most of the time but squeezed from the Dublin 45 back.

Dublin won all 16 of their kick-outs against Roscommon last Saturday and against Louth they won 16 from 17. What both sides did well for long periods in the games was they set a line on the field and once Dublin crossed it, their defensive intensity dramatically increased.

While I would love to see us press the Dublin kick-out, we have two disadvantages in Dublin’s ability to win clean ball in the air and their ability to win breaking ball. Once a kick-out has left the boot of the ’keeper at either end, Dublin’s middle eight players sprint to the break ball area and, more often than not, win possession.

I would expect us to step off the Dublin kick-out a lot but we will need to then pick a line on the field where we are going to start to apply real pressure on the ball in order to stop them running through us.

For the majority of the time, Dublin will press our kick-out in a man-to-man set up. They will be close to their direct opponent but always on the breaking ball side, so they have a head start if the kick-out does go long. When Roscommon sent their kick-out long between their 45 and the Dublin 65 they lost nine of the 18 in that area.

When Roscommon set up in a spinal formation the Dublin forwards stood to the outside which does leave an opportunity to create an overload or a mismatch. Roscommon won 10 from 10 that they kicked inside their own 45 but once the ball was in hand, they had to move it fast to avoid the Dublin pressure that soon followed.

So should we park the bus?

Louth came within four points of Dublin with a 15 men inside their 45-metre line defence which frustrated Dublin for long periods. They looked extremely well-coached and disciplined with their game plan and when they got turnovers, they broke with loads of pace which put Dublin on the back foot.

I’m not sure that will work for us because it’s not something we’ve seen this group of players do this year a lot. The first half against Monaghan was probably the only time we’ve done it but it did work well. The middle third press may suit us better but there will have to be a lot more intensity than there was against Mayo.

For us to win the game we will have to score two goals at least and most likely three goals and keep a clean sheet at the other end. If we can isolate Eoin Murchan in a one-on-one in front of the Dublin goal, a high ball is a serious option if delivered correctly. It will take keeping Dublin to less than their 19.8 scores average and we will have to score 12 or 13 points. A 3-12 to 0-19 win would be the dream result but failing that ,there are loads of ways we can come out of this with credit in the bank.

If we can manage to keep Dublin to fewer than 30 shots and fewer than 19 scores, our defence will have been better than average. If they concede no goals they will have done better than eight of the 10 teams Dublin have faced this year.

In attack if we get more than 19 shots away and score more than 14 we will be better than average. If we score more than one goal we will join Monaghan, Derry and Louth as the only teams that have manage that this year and two of those came when Cluxton was absent.

The big way to come away from defeat in the game with something to hold on to is a ‘less than seven points’ loss which again would be better than average and, more importantly, would be seven points better than our final round opponent, Roscommon.

In order to do any or all of the above we need to play the game with maximum intensity. When we are attacking it must be fast and with loads of support. Our skill execution must be clinical and our discipline will need to be nigh on perfect.

A win is a tall order, but it is an opportunity to do something that people will talk about for years to come. Imagine the stories that would be told by Cavan people about the day we beat Dublin in Kingspan Breffni. The crowd will treble in size and the team will be made up of giants with superhuman abilities. Sport gives us that chance to dream and what a dream that is.