New faces and communities could hold sway

The outcome in Cavan-Belturbet is defined as much by who is running as who isn’t.

Already shaping up to be a tightly contested battle, incumbents will look to leverage their experience, while also addressing calls for change, and newcomers are already talking up the need for change and fresh perspective.

Listen to our podcast

Only four elected in 2019 - John Paul Feeley (FF), Brendan Fay (Ind), Patricia Walsh (FF), and Peter McVitty (FF) - return to the field.

Fine Gael’s Madeleine Argue has retired from politics after 25 years, with her daughter Niamh Brady set to run to secure the seat for the party; while Áine Smith, daughter of the late Séan Smith, a Fianna Fáil stalwart for 43 years who sadly passed away, will compete to hold on to her co-opted seat.

Twelve candidates stand, one more than last time, but only two who didn’t make it in 2014 reappear - Damien Brady (SF) and Labour’s Liam van der Spek. Other new faces include Independent Susuana Komolafe, Michael ‘Bricker’ Wall (SF), Aontú’s Tinko Tinev, and the Green Party’s Kevin Murphy.

By sheer length the MD measures greater than the two other electoral areas, one of several quirks candidates must navigate. The myriad of others are tied up in understanding the changing demographic of the area.

A modest but steady increase in population is attributed to both natural growth and inward migration. Traditionally, rural areas saw younger folk leave. But that trend is reversing post-pandemic, with families and professionals attracted by a better quality of life, remote working opportunities, and more affordable housing.

The 2022 census reports Cavan-Belturbet is home to approximately 28,000. It covers a significant rural area but Cavan Town, being both the largest settlement in district and county, accounts for two-fifths of the population (10,914).

The age profile is also evolving. About 30% are under 18, reflecting a substantial number of families with children, and indicating that housing, cost of living, education, access to services such as health and childcare, as well the need for more amenities are, unsurprisingly, factors on the doorstep.

The working-age of the MD, and most importantly the core voting population (18-64), makes up approximately 55%. The elderly (65 and over) constitutes almost 15%, highlighting other needs such as age-specific services.

Irish ethnicity accounts for about 90%, but there’s a growing international community. Many are settled, predominantly around Cavan Town and Ballyconnell.

The 2019 valid poll was 9,412 (51.41%), up four per cent on 2014, but still only almost half the overall number eligible. It’s the lowest of all three MDs, so there is scope for gains.

Last time the collapse of Sinn Féin (-10.79%) surprised everyone not least the party itself. It allowed Fianna Fáil (+4.61%) to get a third seat, and Independent Brendan Fay claim his spot in chamber.

Five of the six elected got more than 1,000 first preference votes, with McVitty only 46 shy. The next nearest was Brady (SF) on 718, so circa 900 and above could be the safety net.

There is no singular big issue either, like in 2014 when the merger of of St Bricin’s and St Mogue’s was a crucial talking point.

Fine Gael ran a three-candidate strategy in 2019, and in an unusual move catapulted former council cathaoirleach (2011-12) Séan McKieran, who did not to get elected in his native Bailieborough-Cootehill in 2014, into Cavan Town. The hope was he’d get carried on the more popular Argue’s coat tails. But he failed to gain traction with the electorate, and his lowly showing summed up the party’s languor (-7.26% on 2014).

FF’s Feeley, the only candidate to scale the quota (1,345) with 1,414 first preferences, is once again considered a strong contender. He did as well in ballot boxes in Crubany, some distance from his home in Blacklion, as he did in Bawnboy.

His dad, the late Eddie Feeley, served as a local representative for 22 years, and Feeley Jr is one of three loosely termed legacy candidates.

The others - Brady (FG), hopes her mother’s popularity transfers (1,225 fp’s), and schoolteacher Smith (FF), has been Cathaoirleach for the last MD year.

Smith’s late father Séan did better in 2019 (1,114 fp’s), but had to wait until count seven to get elected.

Áine Smith is among the youngest candidates running, and one of only four females in this area (Smith, Brady (FG), Walsh (FF) and Komolafe (Ind) - another poorly represented demographic.

Fay (Ind) meanwhile is no doubt banking on being one of only two non-party candidates in the field along with Komolafe.

Four Independents ran in 2014, and Fay got 48% more than all put together in 2019 (1,236 fp’s) by standing, with others - Smith Sr and latterly his daughter, Walsh, Feeley - on a platform to reverse the school amalgamation plan. With that issue now sorted, his challenge is how to maintain relevance.

He did especially well in Greaghgrahan last time out, and has been very vocal on safety measures on the N3.

Walsh (FF) is seen as the party’s Cavan Town candidate. The party’s incredible three-seat success of 2019 shocked many. But Walsh has been in politics since 1993, and was first elected onto the council in 2004. She lost her seat in 2014, and regained it the election after.

Popular among defence force families, she’ll be looking over her shoulder to the threat of Wall (SF), who served in uniform (1994-99), including one tour abroad. They share a voter base too - Cavan Town - and at the very least Wall expects to hoover up the SF vote (430) Daniel Downey got.

Like running mate Brady (SF), Wall has to believe the SF poll surge nationally crosses over.

Brady was a major casualty five years ago. He’d been a popular figure on the council for 10 years, but came undone more than most for backing of the school merger. It showed in the tallies, particularly in Belturbet and further west, picking up fewer than 50 votes in all but two booths (-41%).

McVitty (FG) who also backed the school merger, seemed less affected. His vote fell only 8.5% on 2014. Almost a third of the overall voter share in 2019 went to FG, who like SF, are running a recognised 1-2 strategy. It’s a canny and proven plan, but if the vote splits too evenly, reliance will be on surpluses, and then on who goes out first, and where those votes transfer to.

Van der Spek (Lab) went out in Count 5 in 2019, increasing his vote from 2014 by 4.22%. He remained in the race, quite remarkably given their political juxtaposition, after a sizeable portion of Argue’s surplus went his way. He picked up double figure numbers in Killeshandra and Greaghgrahan.

With Solidarity People Before Profit’s Emmett Smith not running, one would think there are at least 498 left-leaning votes up for grabs. The arrival of Green Party’s Kevin Murphy could dilute that spread.

He is the first to stand for the Greens in Cavan, incredible for a political grouping in Ireland for more than 40 years ago.

The lion’s share of Smith’s (SPBP) vote was picked up mainly in Cavan Town, a fair reach from Murphy’s heartland of Swanlinbar. Refusing to put up posters and print pamphlets, his success depends on a natural osmosis of environmental concerns resonating locally.

The impact of Tinev (Aon) cannot be overlooked either. His campaign emphasises pragmatic solutions to local issues. His party are now a considerable force in Irish politics, and leader Peadar Tobín has built momentum from gleaning support from those disillusioned with traditional party politics.

The same can be same of mum-of-three Komolafe, a strident worker in the Afro-Caribbean community, who as a Leader on the 2021 series of Operation Transformation, has a strong focus on housing issues and youth supports.