Mourne men up next as Cavan seek third NFL win

Preview

Damien Donohoe

Things are looking up for Cavan after the second half in Mullingar on Sunday. With the new rules, some of the old ways of looking at things need to be re-evaluated.

In the ‘old’ game, it is likely that a team whose side are as far ahead as Westmeath were at half-time would have parked the bus after the break, making it easier to protect their lead. The counter argument to that is, of course, is that in the old rules, Cavan would have packed the defence in the first half and not allowed Westmeath to get 14 points ahead.

The one thing for sure is that the games are more exciting to watch as a form of entertainment. Kick-outs are creating a huge number of contests for possession. Cavan didn’t do well in the middle third for long spells in the first half but in the second, the visitors took almost complete control of that battle.

The big area of improvement was the skill execution compared to previous games. There still were a couple of misplaced passes and balls fumbled but it definitely wasn’t as error-strewn as the previous three games, when handling errors were common and simple passes were missed.

The conversion rate is one of the big metrics quoted after matches (number of scores from shots taken) but the suspicion is that this stat may not be as relevant under the new rules.

Maybe now, we need to start to look at points total from shots taken instead. The number of points to shots taken as a percentage may be a better indicator of performance as it takes in the risk reward factors that the different scores entail.

On Sunday, Cavan took ten shots for two-pointers and converted five of them. A 50% conversion rate usually isn’t a good return but when one considers that the points total from those five scores was ten, then it’s a different story, giving a 100% points-to-shots rate.

Cavan took 31 shots against Westmeath to finish the game with a 1-22 (25) total or 80% points to shots rate (PTSR). If we take out the 10 shots taken for two pointers, that leaves a score of 1-12 or 15 points total for 21 shots or 71% (PTSR). That clearly shows that Cavan’s points to shot rate is better outside the two-point arc than inside it.

The winning of the game came from a dominant second-half display but a few players stood out to make that happen. Padraig Faulkner was a giant in the second half on kick-outs, which was the foundation for the comeback. Gerard Smith, Oisin Brady and Ciaran Brady put in their best halves of the season to date while Cian Madden and Darragh Lovett added to the team from the bench.

Dara McVeety and Gearoid McKiernan showed the quality and leadership we’ve come to take for granted with them while Gary O’Rourke importantly kept a second clean sheet in a row. The best player in blue for the second week in a row, however, was James Smith. Whether at midfield in the first half or at full-forward in the second, he was unmarkable, finishing the game with three points and at least as many assists.

Next up is Conor Laverty’s Down coming to Kingspan Breffni on Saturday night under lights (6pm). They have lost three of their opening four games of the league with a one-point win over Cork in Páirc Esler their only win. They started with a bang, hitting six two-pointers in the first half against Roscommon but let a five-point half-time lead slip to lose by the same margin in the end.

From watching their game against Meath, a few things stood out. Down use Odhran Murdock as a target man on the square and when given the chance to float a ball into him in a one v one situation, they will take it. Their goal, in fact, came in the first half using this as a tactic.

When defending, Down appear to set up with a zonal low block and track runners as they get inside the 40-metre arc. The problem they found was their inability to move the zones across the field as quickly as Meath could move the ball.

Meath also very cleverly flooded the full-forward line with middle-eight players which left their sharp shooters on the arc with space to pick off their scores, hitting four two-pointers and leaving Jordan Morris with the space to take on and beat his man time and time again.

With Meath a point up and 14 minutes played, they lost Conor Duke to a black card but Down were only able to level the game while he was off the field. It’s hard to see the punishment for the team that has a player black-carded with these rules as there are almost always the 11 outfield players defending 11 outfield attacking players. Teams will have to utilise the goalkeeper better in attack for those ten minutes in the future.

Kick-out battle

Against Cork, Down number one Ronan Burns got caught with a short kick-out which resulted in a goal so, not to be caught again, they went long with every kick-out against Meath. They held four defenders around their arc and brought two of the three forwards from the other end to the middle of the field to create an overload with most of Burns kicks contested in the air on the halfway line.

On the Meath kick-out, they went man-for-man all the time which left the smaller Down players exposed at times in mismatches. On a number of occasions in the second half, Meath players caught a Down kick-out on their chest running at the Down goal as Burns appeared to be fatigued after joining the play outfield.

One thing Down did really well was in the last five minutes, when they were behind by six points and pressed the Meath defenders aggressively in their half of the field. They created and scored three points using this but it was too little, too late.

One of Down’s key men is Ryan McEvoy from Kilcoo who plays at midfield. Down supporters feel his best position is at full back but because of a lack of big men, they have had to shoehorn him into mid-field but he showed against Roscommon, with 1-2 to his name, that there’s plenty of football in him.

Their top scorer and free taker is Pat Havern with an impressive 0-35 in four games to date. He has played further out the field than his number 14 would suggest but he has still contributed 11 points from open play so far which makes him their top scorer from play.

Murdock and Danny Magill are their second top scorers with 1-6 each to their name. Murdock is one of their more physical players and that power can be difficult to curtail. Magill, on the other hand, is full of running and brings huge energy to their play. With 13 different scorers in four games and an average points total of 22 per game, Cavan’s defence will have to be ready for a busy evening.

With positive momentum, you’d have to feel like Cavan have a very good chance of picking up a third win in a row on Saturday night but it will take a really good level of performance. The first-half display from the Westmeath game won’t be good enough but the second half should be.

Cavan, in a nutshell, need to produce the good stuff for longer spells on Saturday if they are to continue their climb up the table.