'Win-win' as Independent Ireland move into contention
Shane P O'Reilly "heartened" by result despite missing out
Independent Ireland has emerged as a potential coalition partner for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil after a strong electoral showing, and at the time of speaking with Shane P O'Reilly, the new party stood a chance of doubling their representation in the 34th Dáil.
Locally, in Cavan-Monaghan, the Mullagh based elected representative says he is “heartened” to see his overall vote in the five parishes closest to him, which had helped Cllr O'Reilly top the poll in the Ballyjamesduff Municipal District area last June, stay with him.
If fact, according to tallies, support for him appears “higher” than it was some months ago. “They've been electing me the last 20 years and I can only thank them for doing that. As regards Independent Ireland we're in the hunt for three seats, we have three seats and we're in the hunt for a further three.”
They include Michael Clarke in Sligo-Leitrim, Noel Thomas in Galway West and Ken O'Flynn in Cork. “Hoping for six, guaranteed five. Brilliant!”
WATCH: Shane P. speaks with Seamus Enright
This was Cllr O'Reilly's first run at appealing to the wider constituency electorate since abandoning his Fianna Fáil roots. Twice elected Cathaoirleach of Cavan County Council (2014 and 2019), he quit his former party in 2020 citing “irreconcilable differences”.
It's certain, from looking at the ballots and where number 2's went, that Cllr O'Reilly did damage to his closest rival geographically, TP O'Reilly, who had a relative free run in the area back in 2020. He himself accepts being impacted by the fact that a quarter of the record 20 candidates who stood were all bunched within the east Cavan area.
“We're all there in that corner. So I think it was an amazing vote for me to get, 200 metres from the Meath border to come out and get over 3,000 votes. I'm delighted with it.
Disappointed? "I'm disappointed I won't be a TD. I didn't get it, but I still have a job. There are people here facing losing their jobs. They have employees in their offices, massive families behind them, supporters. A tough day for them. I have to say politics has become something of a bloodsport. Sometimes it's good, sometimes it's bad.”
He says to look at the votes across the main three parties- Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin - that there are a “serious amount of preferences for me in there" but accepts willingly that they won't fall in a way that is beneficial to him staying in the race.
“It wasn't my day, that's it. I can do no more. I've been elected for 20 years. I've as much energy for the people of the Ballyjamesduff MD as as I did in 2004.”
On a canvas in the Butlersbridge area pre-polling day, the Celt asked Cllr O'Reilly about his intentions to run for a seat in the Seanad. He has twice tried and failed, and remains as coy on the subject now as he did before.
“That's not a decision for me to make,” he says. “That's a decision for those who we will talk to during the week. It's a decision we'll make then.”
Asked how he sees this election panning out, Cllr O'Reilly confidently predicts “looking at the figures, and I don't have my crystal ball with me, but my gut is telling me two-two-one. My gut is telling me two Sinn Féin, two Fianna Fáil, and one Fine Gael. Please don't ask me who is going to get the seats because I don't know.”
It continues to be a subject that “baffles” Cllr O'Reilly that Monaghan votes are rarely cast in favour of a Cavan candidate, whereas Cavan voters vote across the board. “I got some votes in Monaghan and I am very, very grateful for them. But it does baffle me all the time how come Cavan will vote for Monaghan candidates but Monaghan will always keep their vote good and tight.”
He applauds how Fianna Fáil Deputy Niamh Smyth and Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly pulled over 3,000 votes out of Monaghan between them.
"At the end of the day will it be enough for either of them? I don't know.”
He says too that there doesn't seem to be “any logic” to how people voted this election, shying away as they did in the June locals from following the party diktat. “Certainly it has gone off the traditional party lines.”
Ultimately, Cllr O'Reilly is happy with how his own campaign went, despite being bed ridden with illness for the first week.
But it was not without it's challenges. His sister Sharon broke her hand during a slip whilst out leafleting for her brother in Virginia. Cllr O'Reilly himself “had a tumble” over a dog when canvassing in Belturbet, and is thankful to the canine's owner for helping patch him up.
“I had a very, very small team,” he said, also referring to how Independent Ireland receives zero government funding because they have yet to reach the two per cent in the national election required.
They might just do it now, and Cllr O'Reilly says: “I'm very, very glad, with almost five per cent of the vote in Cavan-Monaghan, I have ensured that we as a movement can access government funding. That to me is a win-win.”
He concludes by thanking his family, in particular his wife Elisha and five children, and close friends.
“They've been unbelievable over the last three weeks. Without a team you can do nothing. My team was very, very small.”
Five of the 20 candidates are current councillors, and Cllr O'Reilly states: “We're wrecked!”
Cllr O'Reilly also does not believe there will be another election within 12 months, similar to 1981 and '82, and his feeling is that “voter fatigue” crept in so soon after June's local polls.
“It behoves the leaders of the political parties to put their personal ambitions and nonsense to one side and get the country going. Because the electorate will not stand for that.”