Election Blog 2024: Cavan Monaghan Decides

From the #GE24 Count Centre in Cavan.

11:36am: Back to 2020 in the Cavan-Belturbet MD area, Brendan Smith didn't go pass the speed sign at Poles before he had got 2,815. His next nearest rival was Pauline Tully (2,465). After that it was Heather Humphreys (1,046) and Matt Carthy (930). What makes for interesting reading looking back is how the vote will split this time round. Where does Humphrey's vote go? Will Sarah O'Reilly poll as well again (461). So far no boxes from this area have been opened.

11:30am: Here are the top five candidates as it stands with a third of the boxes open. It should be noted that no west Cavan or Cavan town boxes have yet been opened.

1. Matt Carthy (SF)

2. Niamh Smyth (FF)

3. David Maxwell (FG)

4. Sarah O'Reilly (Aontú)

5. Robbie Gallagher (FF)

11:28am: A third of the boxes are now open and tallied at the count centre. Still Sinn Féin candidates are commanding 34% of first preference votes.

11:20am: “It’s still in play” was Deputy Pauline Tully’s response on the possibility of three Sinn Féin TD’s in Cavan Monaghan. Reporter Damian McCarney caught up with Deputy Tully as tallies are underway in the count centre. Watch below.

11am: With 22% of boxes open, here is the order of candidates emerging.

10:55am: In a box that came of of St Anne's in Bailieborough Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly tallied twice as many votes as Niamh Smyth.

10:51am: With 22% of the boxes open to day, tallies indicate Sinn Féin have received 1 in 3 votes. Slightly more boxes from Cavan than Monaghan have been opened so far.

10:49am: There were a number of big questions coming into the 2024 General Election. Cavan-Monaghan, which first came together in 1977, has always been a weather vane for which way the political wind is blowing nationally.

10:44am: The Ballyjamesduff area polled best for Pauline Tully (3,185) in 2020, followed by TP O'Reilly (2,567), Brendan Smith (2,078) and Niamh Smyth (1,358). After that the numbers dropped below 1,000. It was still good though for Matt Carthy (995) and Heather Humphreys (819).

10:37am: Our Celt filing system bore fruits this morning. The 2020 Dáil election results for Bailieborough-Cootehill area showed Niamh Smyth (2,187), Pauline Tully (2,617) faring best, followed by Brendan Smith (1,751), Heather Humphreys (1,702). After that it was Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly (1,474), TP O'Reilly (1,455) and Matt Carthy (1,279).

10:30am: A box from Broomfield in Monaghan was again overwhelmingly in favour of Matt Carthy, followed by Robbie Gallagher and David Maxwell. From the Cavan front Niamh Smyth received 24 votes according to the tally, with Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly also polling well.

10:26am: Brendan Smith pulled 68 votes from a box opened in Kingscout, twice that of Niamh Smyth. Pauline Tully tallied more than 40 herself, as did Matt Carthy. Surprises perhaps are that Cathy Bennett received a double figure number of votes. Local man and the Irish Freedom Party's Val Martin got 30 votes from that same box, with Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly not far behind.

10:19am: The latest from the floor shows now major change at the top. Matt Carthy looks on course to top the poll. After that, with boxes in Cootehill, Mullagh, Bailieborough, Bunnoe, and Kill opened, and Carrickmacross, Ballybay, and Castleblayney, Fine Gael's Carmel Brady is in second place according to VERY EARLY tallies, followed by Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly, Niamh Smyth and Robbie Gallagher. But again to stress, these are heart-land boxes for some of these candidates. No boxes have been opened, and very few from the likes of West Cavan have been tallied.

10:15am: Sinn Féin's Cathy Bennett was the only candidate here up until two minutes ago when colleague Pauline Tully just arrived. We're up to two out of 20 now.

10:06am: The tally, led by Sinn Féin, will start to show trends in the next hours or so.

9:56am: The view from one tally output. Niamh Smyth, Shane P O'Reilly, David Maxwell, Robbie Gallagher, Carmel Brady, and Cathy Bennett all appear to be polling well as of now. But the major caveat is that this is read from mainly Monaghan boxes and also Bailieborough. There has been no boxes opened yet from Virginia, Mullagh, or West Cavan yet.

9:49am:

9:46am: At this early stage, Sinn Féin are still hoping to pull off a major upset and claim three seats.

'Nothing is set in stone' - says Cllr Cathy Bennett

9:35am: Neglected to mention the earlier post the pressence of former Cllr and Fine Gael stalwart Paddy Smith, and Monaghan Sinn Féin cllr Séan Conlan. Now also local election Aontú candidate Grainne McPhilips.

9:23am: Early tally perceptions show Sinn Féin's Matt Cathy doing well (Donamoyne) as is Fine Gael's David Maxwell. So too Robbie Gallagher. But in at least one box coming out of Castleblayney Fianna Fáil's Niamh Smyth appears to be polling well. She has a constituency office in the town.

9:13am: A few familiar faces have graced us already among the army of tallymen eagerly keeping tabs as boxes are opened. Sinn Féin statesman Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin was organising people at the door before boxes were opened. There are several councillors too in the mix. Noel Connell and Stiofan Conaty are milling about, and Fianna Fáil Senator Diarmuid Wilson is currently chatting to former Cavan cllr Fergal Curtin. The only candidate here so far is Sinn Féin's Cathy Bennett. Former Fine Gael cllr John O'Hare is also here, an veteran of elections.

9:10am: For the uninitiated this is pretty much like early Christmas for anyone who loves news, current affairs and politics. The Celt team will be keeping our readers up to date with news, interviews and views from the counting floor throughout the day, so stay tuned.

9am: And we're off! The first boxes are being opened at the Cavan Leisure Centre as the count gets underway for the Cavan Monaghan Constituency. The tallymen (and women) are poised and ready. It's going to be a long haul but the Celt news team will be here until the wee hours to keep you updated with emerging trends throughout the day.