Election Blog 2024: Cavan Monaghan Decides
From the #GE24 Count Centre in Cavan
22:49pm: That's a wrap in Cavan Monaghan. Thank you to everybody who stayed with us over the weekend and into today. Goodnight.
22:45pm: Brendan Smith said that democracy has to be cherished noting it was in danger elsewhere in the world.
He thanked his wife Anne and family for huge support they give him on a daily basis.
He also highlighted the work of Nuala Brady and Celine Mullen who go way above "the call of duty" in conducting constituency work - a statement which drew huge cheers from those in attendance.
He said this was the eighth time he had been elected as a TD adding, "I've never taken the great support I have received in Cavan Monaghan for granted".
He listed each of the years he had been elected, beginning first in 1992.
He said the he looks forward to being a member of the 34th Dail which will be the "largest Dail ever" due to the increase in population.
"Thankfully we have an increase in our population," he said recalling that when he started off in the Dáil "people were leaving our country."
He accepted this would bring challenges and require improved services. He said that in trying to meet the "constituency's needs" over he looked forward to being an "active participant in the discussions in these important issues".
He vowed to continue to work with colleagues in the Dail in a positive manner.
He said it was important to "airing the grievances of this constituency and always doing it in a positive way" in the best interests of Cavan Monaghan.
He said there would be challenges but "by god there will be plenty of opportunities" for the people of Cavan Monaghan.
22:30pm: Responding to Cathy Bennett's assertion Sinn Fein would gain three seats, Niamh Smyth insisted Fianna Fáil "will always strive" to get three Fianna Fail TDs elected, which sparked massive cheers from the audience.
She paid tribute to her colleagues Julieanne Sheridan and Michelle Kiernan for their constituency work, and also director of elections Seamus Sheridan for guiding her three successful Dáil bids.
She paid tribute to Heather Humphreys as she retires from ministerial work, thanking her for her "collegiality" and benefitting the parishes across the constituency.
She thanked her family who had stood behind her for the past four years paying special tribute to her young daughter Juliette.
Deputy Smyth noted that sometimes "this job can be very overwhelming for a little person" and noted her daughter took it in her stride because of the "love and support" of her friends and family.
22:15pm: Cathy Bennett noted she was the first female Sinn Fein TD for Monaghan. She insisted she would work for both counties and vowed: "I will not let you down".
She described Monaghan as a trailblazer for SF in pursuing a dream of a united Ireland and paid tribute to the Farney politicians who led the way.
She described today as "a bitter sweet moment".
She noted the party was "incredibly close to electing three TDs for this constituency".
"Pauline was a first class TD for this area, myself and Matt will continue to work closely with Pauline to do the best for this county."
She concluded vowing: "In the next Dail term we will elect three out of three believe me."
22:05pm: Matt Carthy said it was a bitter sweet moment as he paid tribute to Deputy Pauline Tully as an outstanding TD. He said he and the party have hope that Pauline Tully will return.
He said he was incredibly proud that once again Cavan Monaghan has returned two Sinn Fein TDs describing his newly elected TD, Cathy Bennett as "my very good friend".
"No one has ever made the impact that Cathy Bennett will make in Leinter House," he predicted adding she will be an outstanding TD.
Matt Carthy vowed to redouble his efforts in disability rights and would work to ensure that the special school promised for Monaghan would be delivered.
9:51pm: The outcome of the 14th and final count in the Cavan-Monaghan constituency. The distribution of SF's Cathy Bennett's surplus of 1,841.
1. Niamh Smyth (FF) (+202) 11,058
2. Brendan Smith (FF) (+70) 10,886
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3. Sarah O'Reilly (Aon) (+938) 10,067
Returning officer declares the candidates elected to be:
David Maxwell FG
Matt Carthy SF
Cathy Bennett SF
Niamh Smyth FF
Brendan Smith FF
9:43pm: We're expecting an announcement any time now. Supporters of Brendan Smith and Niamh Smyth have gathered around their respective candidates.
8:15pm: Seats filled in Cavan Monaghan so far.
8:10pm: Here is the official 13th count.
8:05pm: Niamh Smyth was the last Dáil rep elected in 2020, the Fianna Fáil politician will definitely be among the last two again this year.
8:00pm: Here is the current state of play with two seats to go.
1. Niamh Smyth (FF) (+73) 10,856 ⬆️
2. Brendan Smith (FF) (+94)10,616 ⬆️
3. Sarah O'Reilly (Aon) (+139) 9,129 ⬆️
7:45pm: Cllr Cathy Bennett is elected on the 13th count, her surplus of 1841 will now be distributed.
6:50pm: Deputy Niamh Smyth has arrived to the count centre, which is now filling up ahead of the 13th count.
6:44pm: Deputy Brendan Smith has arrived at the count centre. He is currently behind party colleague Deputy Niamh Smyth in the race for a seat.
6:40pm: Here is how the seats have filled up nationally, thanks to RTÉ. The remainder will be filled by candidates from the Cavan Monaghan constituency.
6:30pm: Two seats have now been filled in Cavan Monaghan, which is now the only constituency left to finish counting. Three more seats have yet to be filled with Matt Carthy's surplus now bring distributed.
6:15pm: Sinn Féin's Matt Carthy is thrown up in the air with the tricolour flying behind him as he is deemed elected on the 12th count.
6:12pm: Matt Carthy's surplus of 3,579 is now being sorted. That'll be broken down into percentages and awarded to the respective candidate. We could see Cathy Bennett reaching the quota potentially.
6:00pm: Results from count 12.
5:35pm: After the 12th count, and the distribution of Sinn Fein's Pauline Tully's 7,868 transfers, this is the outlook.
1. Matt Carthy (SF) (+4,140) 15, 121 ⬆️
2. Niamh Smyth (FF) (+470) 10,783 ⬆️
3. Brendan Smith (FF) (+460)10,522 ⬆️
4. Cathy Bennett (SF) (+1,882) 10, 102 ⬆️
5. Sarah O'Reilly (Aon) (+508) 8,998 ⬆️
* Matt Carthy is deemed elected, and his surplus of 3,579 will now be distributed in Count 13. Fine Gael's David Maxwell is already elected as of Count 10.
4:31pm: From Pauline Tully's transfers, expectations are that Matt Carthy is set to receive more than 3,000 in his favour. He only needs about 600. Bennett is expected to get close to 1,900, catapulting her ahead of Aontú's O'Reilly and within touching distance of Fianna Fáil's Smith and Smyth. O'Reilly, Smith and Smyth all look set to get fairly even amounts of distribution from Tully's exit, but the sheer amount of surplus Carthy has means another count is on the cards to see who secures that fifth and final seat.
3:52pm: Just a reminder. We're in Count 12 now, the distribution of Pauline Tully's 7,868 votes. There are five candidates left with one elected- Fine Gael''s David Maxwell.
3:49pm: Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly is doing surprisingly well from Pauline Tully's transfers. Carthy too, so no surprise there and he's expected to have s surplus from this. Where this does get interesting is if O'Reilly remains ahead of Bennett. How much of Carthy's surplus would she need? How much will that surplus be?
3:32pm: It was said several times last night that politics and certainly elections can be like a 'blood sport'. This count has been a bruising encounter in more ways than one. Whatever about the fact we're here over 35 hours and still counting, the lack of separation between the candidates still in the race, and the faint glimmers of hope afforded to several also. At one stage Pauline Tully looked the more confident when she made up significant ground following transfers from Lester Grodon, Val Martin and Emma Hendrick. When Shane P O'Reilly, Carmel Brady and TP O'Reilly went out she looked a little more comfortable. But all turned on Fianna Fáil's Robbie Gallagher going out. The Monaghan man transferred 568 votes to Cathy Bennett and just a handful to Tully. It got Maxwell over the line and his surplus only consolidated Bennett's position and Tully's unfortunate fate.
3:25pm: Despite fewer staff, the pace is definitely lively here at the count centre with a sense of urgency in the air.
2:41pm: There are fewer count staff here today. The next result is not expected for a few hours. Things to watch out for with Pauline Tully's elimination. Matt Carthy, now is expected to exceed the quota of 11,542 and Cathy Bennett won't be far behind that one would think. That would mean his surplus will be the next thing counted come Count 13. However, before that, readers will need to mindful of where else Tully's transfers could go. Yes there was evidence of a strong female-female vote this election, and geographically you'd expect both Smyth and O'Reilly to do well. But a lot of people had Smith written off with only 30 per cent of boxes tallied when counting first started, before Cavan Town and the West of the county swept him strongly into contention. Tully did, according to tallies, just as good as Smith did in some areas of West Cavan and outside of passing down party lines, he's expected to pick up plenty of the now eliminated Sinn Féin TD's additional support.
2:39pm: Since getting elected she served as Sinn Féin Spokesperson on Disability and Carers and TD for Cavan-Monaghan.
2:35pm: After the 11th count, this is the outlook.
1. Matt Carthy (SF) 10,981 ⬆️
2. Niamh Smyth (FF) 10,313 ⬆️
3. Brendan Smith (FF) 10,062 ⬆️
4. Sarah O'Reilly (Aon) 8,490 ⬆️
5. Cathy Bennett (SF) 8,220 ⬆️
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6. Pauline Tully (SF) 7,868 *Eliminated*
2:25pm: The result of Count 11 has been announced- the distribution of David Maxwell's surplus of 811. As no candidate has reached the quota yet the next to be eliminated is Cavan's Pauline Tully.
2:15pm: Fifteen minutes until the next count is announced, according to the Returning Officer.
2:11pm: Cllr Stiofán Conaty (SF) has entered. With a few others starting to file in, the count centre is beginning to take on its usual buzz. There are also a few faces looking down on the action from the canteen.
2:00pm: Cllr Áine Smith (FF) has just entered the count centre in support of her uncle Deputy Brendan Smith. The distribution of Maxwell's surplus is ongoing.
1:50pm: Supposedly just minutes out from the announcement of the eleventh count, here is the current state of play in Cavan Monaghan.
1:45pm: Sinn Féin very nearly pulled off securing three TD's. It was always a “far out reach” to run and try return three. Director of Elections for Cavan-Monaghan, Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin, says the “critical explanation” is borne out by the “very different range of challenges” all parties and none had to contend with. Chief among them the emergence of Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly who, according to tallies, took close to 600 more first preferences in Monaghan than last time out.
1:43pm: Fianna Fáil stalwart, dad of current Cavan cllr Philip 'the Gunner' Brady, has arrived. Danny served on Cavan Council as a local representative for 47 years and at one time he was the longest serving public representative in the country.
1:41pm: They reckon another 20 minutes before the outcome of David Maxwell's surplus is known.
1:39pm: The media gallery is a lot quieter today than it was over the weekend. The die-hards like ourselves are still here. The team has split, with half reporting from the count centre and the others back at the office ensuring a newspaper gets published this week.
1:36pm: There is an eerie silence in the public area of the count centre. Not even the canteen is busy. It is a Monday afternoon after all. People keep saying 'Good morning' to each other. It does feel that way. The count finished at 4.30am.
1:35pm: More from around the country. A recount is happening where just one vote separates Mick Barry (PBP) and Eoghan Kenny (Lab) for the final seat in Cork North Central. Gillian Toole in Meath East is the first independent TD ever elected in the Royal County. The Green;s Roderic O’Gorman is the first incumbent Minister for Children not to lose their seat at a general election- the others had been James Reilly in 2016 and Katherine Zappone in 2020. Interestingly she has Cavan-Meath connections, with family ties to the Virginia and Oldcastle areas.
1:30pm: Titbits from elsewhere. FF and FG need some help, but not much, to seal another term. Health minister Stephen Donnelly lost his seat in Wicklow to Simon Harris’ running mate Edward Timmons. Quite incredibly Donnelly was elected to the Dáil three times, with three different affiliations: 2011 Independent, 2016 Social Democrats, 2020 Fianna Fáil.
1:25pm: From an eye-ball glance at David Maxwell's 811 surplus being divided, Fianna Fáil's Brendan Smith and Niamh Smyth stand to do quite well, with Sinn Féin's Cathy Bennett and Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly also picking up a share. After Gallagher's elimination Smith and Smyth are ahead of the pack chasing that fifth and final seat. O'Reilly is several hundred votes ahead of Bennett who is almost the same again in front of Pauline Tully who, unless there is a remarkable turnaround, looks set to be the next eliminated. Remember, candidates only get a percentage of the surplus, unlike transfers which is a far more straightforward sharing exercise.
1:20pm: It took on average just short of three hours between each count result.
1:15pm: Sinn Féin Director of Elections for Cavan-Monaghan, Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin and Brian McKenna are here, taking up their usual corner in the count centre. Fianna Fáil's Niall Smith, a cousin of Niamh Smyth is here, and former Fine Gael cllr, now Sarah O'Reilly of Aontú supporter John O'Hare is flicking through the morning's newspaper.
1:12pm: Fine Gael's David Maxwell is the first to get elected in Cavan-Monaghan in Count 10. His position was secured in the early hours of Monday morning, and was the last action before counting was adjourned until Monday afternoon.
1:05pm: Returning Officer Joseph Smith has just announced that counting can begin.
12:58pm: Results from Count 10
12:56pm: The lie of the land as it currently stands-
1. David Maxwell (FG) 12,353 ⬆️ * ELECTED *
2. Matt Carthy (SF) 10,898 ➡️
3. Niamh Smyth (FF) 10,039 ⬆️⬆️
4. Brendan Smith (FF) 9,807 ⬇️
5. Sarah O'Reilly (Aon) 8,407 ➡️
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6. Cathy Bennett (SF) 8,110 ➡️
7. Pauline Tully (SF) 7,862 ➡️
12:55pm: Count 11 is due to start at 1pm. David Maxwell's surplus of more than 800 votes having exceeded the quota will be divided first.
12:50pm: We're into Day 3 of the Cavan-Monaghan constituency count, 34.5 hours and counting, with 10 counts done and one candidate elected- Fine Gael's David Maxwell.
*** Day 3 Election Blog 2024: Cavan Monaghan Decides ***
4:30am: Signing off for tonight. Tune in tomorrow when the first action will be the count of David Maxwell's 811 surplus votes.
4:25am: Celebrations as Fine Gael's David Maxwell is elected.
4:21am: The standings after the tenth count
1. David Maxwell (FG) 12,353 ⬆️ * ELECTED *
2. Matt Carthy (SF) 10,898 ➡️
3. Niamh Smyth (FF) 10,039 ⬆️⬆️
4. Brendan Smith (FF) 9,807 ⬇️
5. Sarah O'Reilly (Aon) 8,407 ➡️
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6. Cathy Bennett (SF) 8,110 ➡️
7. Pauline Tully (SF) 7,862 ➡️
4:14pm: The result of the 10th count, the distribution of Robbie Gallagher's 6,857 votes. David Maxwell from Fine Gael takes the first seat in Cavan Monaghan having amassed 12,353 votes. David Maxwell's surplus will not be distributed. The count is now adjourned until 1am tomorrow (Monday).
3:04pm: Minister 'happy' with Fine Gael effort to retain seat in Cavan Monaghan
3:03pm: A bunch of teenage girls look to be making a Tik Tok dance video. It's the most excitement we're had here in the count centre in about two hours.
3pm: From Robbie Gallagher's transfers it now looks like Fine Gael's David Maxwell will get the 997 required to hit surplus. Which means that this will have to be counted before the next candidate is eliminated. Matt Carthy will get about 500 of Gallagher's 6,857, and Bennett about 600 which, if people on the ground are to be believed, will push her ahead of party colleague Pauline Tully who looks set to get eliminated next.
2:20am: The distribution of Senator Robbie Gallagher's 6857 votes is underway as we await count ten.
2:03am: Both outgoing TDs Brendan Smith and Niamh Smyth, both Fianna Fáil, have arrived at the count centre. Both are expected to get a good lift from the redistribution of Senator Robbie Gallagher's votes. The last couple of seats will go down to the wire here. No candidate elected as of yet but David Maxwell (FG) and Matt Carthy (SF) are edging closer to the quota - the magic number of 11,542.
2am: The official result of the ninth count. Senator Robbie Gallagher's votes are now being distributed.
1:59pm: No great surprises where TP O'Reilly's vote went with Maxwell getting almost 2,900 transfers and Fianna Fáil benefitting from their newfound working relationship.
1. David Maxwell (FG) 10,565 ⬆️
2. Matt Carthy (SF) 10,337 ⬇️
3. Brendan Smith (FF) 8,523 ⬆️
4. Sarah O'Reilly (Aon) 8,068 ⬇️
5. Niamh Smyth (FF) 8,080 ⬆️⬆️
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6. Pauline Tully (SF) 7,817 ⬇️⬇️⬇️
7. Cathy Bennett (SF) 7,542 ⬇️⬇️
01:47am: The result of the ninth count. Still no candidate elected but Fine Gael's David Maxwell has over taken Sinn Féin's Matt Carthy to take the lead. Fianna Fáil's Niamh Smyth has leapfrogged Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly with just 12 votes separating the pair. Senator Robbie Gallagher (FF) has now been eliminated and his votes will be distributed in the 10th count.
1am: Heather Humphreys has arrived at the count centre posing for photos with David Maxwell and shaking hands as she goes. He looks home and hosed as far as this election race is concerned. Along with Matt that makes it two TD's for Monaghan.
12:05am: Sinn Féin's Cathy Bennett is just 30 votes behind running-mate Pauline Tully, 25 behind Fianna Fáil's Brendan Smith, and a measly three ahead of Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly. Three Sinn Féin candidates elected is still on the cards as of now.
12am: We're in day three of this election count.
11:56pm: As it stands, if Fianna Fáil's Robbie Gallagher goes out next after TP O'Reilly's votes are transferred, we could be looking at a surplus maybe for Sinn Féin's Matt Carthy given their geographical proximity and the fact that Monaghan votes stay within the county boundary. You'd imagine that'd benefit Cathy Bennett (currently in 5th) who is just 30 votes behind running mate Pauline Tully (3rd). A scan of the ballots also looks good for Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly (6th) who is 33 votes.
11:54pm: With TP O'Reilly's exit, one would think David Maxwell, being the only Fine Gael candidate left, will stand to make the biggest gain Count 9. Its hard to believe the count has got this far without seeing someone elected but such is the situation developing here and real probability, that with things so tight, there could be an entire recount called if the last and final seat if separate by only a few dozen votes.
11:43pm: We're entering championship quarter and David Maxwell has seen his hopes boosted by Carmel Brady's enormous transfer elevating him five places... Just 33 votes separate Pauline Tully in 3rd and Sarah O'Reilly in 6th.
1. Matt Carthy (SF) 10,257 ➡️
2. David Maxwell (FG) 7,695 ⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️⬆️
3. Pauline Tully (SF) 7,520 ⬇️
4. Brendan Smith (FF) 7,512 ⬇️
5. Cathy Bennett (SF) 7,490 ⬇️
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6. Sarah O'Reilly (Aon) 7,487 ⬇️
7. Niamh Smyth (FF) 6,996 ⬆️
8. Robbie Gallagher (FF) 6,767 ⬇️
11:37pm: The official result of the eighth count. Cllr T.P. O'Reilly (FG) has been eliminated.
11:32pm: The result of the eighth count, the distribution of Carmel Brady's surplus. No candidate has been elected. Cllr T.P. O'Reilly has now been eliminated and his votes will be distributed in count nine. Deputy Niamh Smyth has just gone ahead of running mate Senator Robbie Gallagher.
11.04pm: The returning officer has told the Celt they intend to continue the count tonight until it is completed. As of now there are no candidates elected, so it will be a long night ahead. Please stay with us!
10:43pm: We all got a bit excited there. The returning officer stepped up to the mic but not for the results of count eight - there is a mercedes outside blocking somebody in!
10.25pm: Although we haven't distributed a surplus in the count centre yet, retired Senior Executive Officer of Cavan County Council Matthew Donnelly explains how it works, with hand written assistance!
10:07pm: As count eight gets into full swing, a Fianna Fáil source has reminded us that Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly previously worked as part of Senator Robbie Gallagher's team in Monaghan. It's anticipated that Deputy Niamh Smyth will benefit more from Carmel Brady's transfers than the Monaghan based Robbie Gallagher. So it begs the question, if Gallagher is next eliminated, will the bulk of his transfers go to his Fianna Fáil running mates or benefit his former staff member O'Reilly?
9:43pm: Count 7 witnessed the 'Sarah Surge' jumping three places and into a potential seat in Dáil Eireann...
1. Matt Carthy (SF) 10,094 ➡️
2. Pauline Tully (SF) 7,384 ⬆️
3. Cathy Bennett (SF) 7,373 ⬇️
4. Brendan Smith (FF) 7,154 ⬇️
5. Sarah O'Reilly (Aon) 7,122 ⬆️⬆️⬆️
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6. Robbie Gallagher (FF) 6,526 ⬇️
7. David Maxwell (FG) 6,525 ⬇️
8. Niamh Smyth (FF) 6,472 ⬇️
9. TP O'Reilly (FG) 4,540 ➡️
9:40pm: The official result of the seventh count.
9:21pm: The result of the seventh count, the distribution of Shane P. O'Reilly's votes. Cllr Carmel Brady (FG) has been eliminated from the race and her votes will now be distributed in the eighth count.
9:15pm: We're expecting the results of Count 7 within the next 10 minutes. Still no one to be elected but it could be crucial in terms of future eliminations. Shane P's transfers expected to benefit Sarah O'Reilly, TP O'Reilly and Pauline Tully most.
8:55pm: “We're going to keep one seat and that's going to be Heather's seat in David Maxwell. I hope that we push David across the line when it comes down to that.”
8:42pm: Fianna Fáil stalwart Danny Brady and son, Cllr Philip Brady, have just joined the party at the Leisure Centre in Cavan ahead of the result of the seventh count.
8:39pm: Having crunched the numbers on the gallery, it's likely that, following the distribution of Shane P. O'Reilly's surplus, Fine Gael's Carmel Brady will be eliminated. Running mate T.P. O'Reilly will need at least one in four of her transfers to put him ahead of outgoing TD Niamh Smyth (FF).
8:28pm: Monaghan native Catherine Martin from the Green Party has lost her seat but party leader Roderic O Gorman has retained his seat.
7:50pm: There's just 900 votes separating six candidates between Pauline Tully in 3rd and NIamh Smyth in 8th Order of standing after Count 6.
1. Matt Carthy (SF) 9,857
2. Cathy Bennett (SF) 7,273
3. Pauline Tully (SF) 6,958
4. Brendan Smith (FF) 6,841
5. Robbie Gallagher (FF) 6,472
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6. David Maxwell (FG) 6,452
7. Sarah O'Reilly (Aon) 6,153
8. Niamh Smyth (FF) 6,056
9. TP O'Reilly (FG) 4,540
10. Carmel Brady (FG) 4,415
7:47pm: The official result from count six.
7:31pm: Result of the sixth count, the distribution of Emma Henrick and Val Martin's votes (2,785 votes in total). Shane P O'Reilly's 3,717 votes are to be distributed in count six. Aontu's Sarah O'Reilly has just leap frogged Fianna Fáil's Niamh Smyth.
7.24pm: David Maxwell calls how the five seats fall for the parties.
6:35pm: Chief Executive Eoin Doyle has arrived at the count centre.
6:17pm: That standing makes for really interesting reading. There are only a couple hundred votes separating Cathy Bennett and Brendan Smith, the latter of whom has found it difficult in the past to pick up transfers. That was proving to be the case in the earlier counts but Smith got a decent return (+43 and +57 respectively) from the eliminations of the Green's Eddie O'Gara and Non Party Lester Gordon. Somebody please show me the venndiagram where their political ideologies align!
Sinn Féin's Pauline Tully is less than 100 votes behind Smith now, and she herself has kept a nose in front of Fianna Fáil's Gallagher.
After that it gets really tight. Fine Gael's David Maxwell is a couple of dozen votes behind Gallagher having picked up +35 from Gordon going out.
Beyond that Smyth will be looking to make up ground, needing one would expect for Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly to go out to stand a chance. They're all looking at which way Independent Ireland Shane P O'Reilly'a transfers will spread. O'Reilly (Aon) certainly stands to benefit, but by enough? Fine Gael's TP O'Reilly stands to do really well here, as does Tully, and Smyth is also set to pick up a good share. Less than 500 votes separate O'Reilly (Aon) and Smyth at present. Both, looking at the 2020 figures, are popular transfer getters.
6:11pm: Order of standing after Count 5.
1. Matt Carthy (SF) 9,551
2. Cathy Bennett (SF) 7,013
3. Brendan Smith (FF) 6,760
4. Pauline Tully (SF) 6,643
5. Robbie Gallagher (FF) 6,408
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6. David Maxwell (FG) 6,368
7. Niamh Smyth (FF) 5,961
8. Sarah O'Reilly (Aon) 5,478
9. TP O'Reilly (FG) 4,493
10. Carmel Brady (FG) 4,353
11. Shane P O'Reilly (II) 3,294
6:08pm: Aontú local election candidate in the Ballyjamesduff MD areas, Grainne McPhilips has been here a while, scouting out how things might fare our for her party colleague Sarah O'Reilly. She's in with a shout but like the others needs transfers to fall her way. Of particular interest will be those coming from Shane P O'Reilly. By a tally count from last night the majority of his number 2's will got to Sarah, but also TP and Pauline Tully. Niamh Smyth should still receive enough to stay ahead however. That is before Emma Hendrick and Val Martin's 2's are divided.
6:05pm: Fine Gael's David Maxwell is here, and Fianna Fáil's Robbie Gallagher is back again. He looks the more nervous of the two.
Fine Gael's TP O'Reilly also arrived.
6pm: Count 5 results.
5:25pm: The result of count five - the distribution of Lester Gordon's votes. Still no candidate has reached the quota. Eliminated: Val Martin and Emma Hendrick.
5:23pm: The result of count five is imminent.
4:53pm: Robbie Gallagher might not be directly looking for it, but won't say not to the help that might come his way when the Irish Freedom Party's Val Martin gets eliminated. Certainly a good many of his 2's look to be heading that way. Both are ex-members of An Garda Siochana. Could that have played a factor?
4:45pm: Fine Gael are anxiously looking at how close Carmel Brady and TP O'Reilly are votes wise. They're only a couple of dozen apart, and it'll depend on which candidate does best from the eliminations to come over whether they stay in the race. Safer looking for is David Maxwell in Monaghan. Elizabeth Ormiston, former head of the IFA in Cavan, who canvassed with Cllr O'Reilly is down the public gallery now. Blueshirts have commandeered a table for themselves. Sinn Féin supporters are all bunched into one corner, well stocked with goodies to help them sustain the wait. There are a few Fianna Fáil'ers about but not many. The canteen looks busy though.
4:22pm: Read more - 'Win-win' as Independent Ireland move into contention
WATCH: Reporter Seamus Enright speaks to Shane P.
4:10pm: Read more - Sarah O'Reilly speaks to Aisling Kiernan at the Count Centre
4:06pm:
No move in the positions after count 4. The quota is 11,542. Next up is distribution of Lester Gordon's 1,046 votes.
1. Matt Carthy (SF) 9,487
2. Cathy Bennett (SF) 6,987
3. Brendan Smith (FF) 6,703
4. Pauline Tully (SF) 6,504
5. Robbie Gallagher (FF) 6,398
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6. David Maxwell (FG) 6,333
7. Niamh Smyth (FF) 5,905
8. Sarah O'Reilly (Aon) 5,342
9. TP O'Reilly (FG) 4,399
10. Carmel Brady (FG) 4,324
11. Shane P O'Reilly (II) 3,161
4:03pm: The official result of count four. Lester Gordon's votes are now being redistributed in count five.
3:58pm: The result of the fourth count sees Lester Gordon eliminated. His votes will now be distributed in count five. There are still no seats filled in Cavan Monaghan.
3:51pm: Forecast: This next count will see the distribution of Eddie O'Gara's 750 votes. As a Green Party candidate you would expect to see his votes benefiting People Before Profit and Sinn Féin - especially Monaghan duo of Carthy and Bennett - more so than the Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael candidates. This will likely see Emma Hendrick leapfrog Lester Gordon, and mean the elimination of the latter.
3:47pm: Still awaiting the result of the fourth count but it doesn't seem far away now.
In other news, Gerry 'the Monk' Hutch misses out on last seat in Dublin Central.
2:54pm: After the third count the standings are as you were:
1. Matt Carthy (SF) 9,446
2. Cathy Bennett (SF) 6,950
3. Brendan Smith (FF) 6,660
4. Pauline Tully (SF) 6,471
5. Robbie Gallagher (FF) 6,319
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6. David Maxwell (FG) 6,246
7. Niamh Smyth (FF) 5,827
8. Sarah O'Reilly (Aon) 5,307
9. TP O'Reilly (FG) 4,341
10. Carmel Brady (FG) 4,272
11. Shane P O'Reilly (II) 3,143
2:51pm: As she continues to pick up transfers, Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly tells the Celt that she's still in the race but "needs the stars to align" to take that final seat.
2:50pm: The official result from count three. The Green Party candidate Eddie O'Gara has now been eliminated from the race.
2:40pm: The result of the third count in Cavan Monaghan. No candidate as reached the quota. The lowest remaining candidate has been excluded - Eddie O'Gara from the Green Party and his 750 votes. Kingscourt's Val Martin picked up the most transfers from Shane Mulligan (137) but Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly added 103 to her tally bringing her up to 5,307 and keeping her in contention if she continues to prove this transfer friendly.
2:37pm: With the result of count three imminent, Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly has arrived at the county centre.
2:30pm: The Green Party vote has collapsed in the Cavan-Monaghan Constituency after its only candidate locally, Eddie O’Gara, received just 739 first preference votes following count one. By comparison, in the 2020 General Election, Tate Donnelly secured 2,501 first preference votes.
Mr O’Gara is still in the race here at the count centre in Cavan, however, he is next in line for elimination.
Nationally, this has been a disastrous election for the Green Party, which has already suffered significant losses including Junior Ministers Joe O'Brien and Ossian Smyth. Also, Francis Noel Duffy who is the husband of Minister Catherine Martin, a native of Monaghan, lost his seat in Dublin South West.
Party Leader, Roderic O'Gorman said the expectation now is that just “two to three seats” will be retained in the 34th Dáil.
2:12pm: Independent Ireland's Shane P. O'Reilly has just entered the building.
1.55pm: Cllr Smith says “hopefully” Deputy Smyth proves transfer friendly, mentioning Independent Ireland’s Shane P. O’Reilly and Aontú’s Sarah O’Reilly as possible transfers to Deputy Smyth. There are still five candidates in the race in the east Cavan area.
1:40pm: The national snapshot as it stands from our friends in RTÉ.
1:36pm: Matt Carthy is the closest to the magic number of 11,542, but realistically some candidates are likely to be elected without reaching the quota. Current standings:
1. Matt Carthy (SF) 9,385
2. Cathy Bennett (SF) 6,933
3. Brendan Smith (FF) 6,655
4. Pauline Tully (SF) 6,465
5. Robbie Gallagher (FF) 6,286
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6. David Maxwell (FG) 6,215
7. Niamh Smyth (FF) 5,803
8. Sarah O'Reilly (Aon) 5,204
9. TP O'Reilly (FG) 4,333
10. Carmel Brady (FG) 4,266
11. Shane P O'Reilly (II) 3,106
1:32pm: Some craic on socials
1:28pm: Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin, speaking on national radio, said he expects Cavan and Monaghan to go to the wire.
1:26pm: The official result of count two. Count this is underway with the redistribution of Shane Mulligan's votes.
1:13pm: The result of the second count is in. The biggest beneficiary of those transfers from count one was Lester Gordon who picked up 77 to bring him to 998; Sarah O'Reilly (Aontú) gained 56 bringing her to 5,204. Brendan Smith was among a handful of candidates to pick up single-digit transfers. He added two to his total bringing him to 6,655. His running mate in Cavan Niamh Smyth gained 14; while Robbie Gallagher added 13 to his total.
The lowest remaining candidate has now been excluded. That is Shane Mulligan of the Liberty Republic Party. The third count will consist of the redistribution of his 544 votes.
12:59pm: Robbie Gallagher says: "There's a long way to go before we'll know the lie of the lay of the land!"
12:38pm: Sarah O'Reilly has a slightly rosier outlook this morning given the shortfall between the tallies and the first count total.
The Aontú candidate had been estimated to get 5,098 first preference votes in the tallies, but ended up actually receiving an extra 50 votes, which could well be significant given the tightness of the race. O'Reilly has a first count of 5,148.
The Bailieborough based politician received 3,840 first preferences in 2020, so she has increased her vote by 34%.
The tallies were as always fairly accurate, but each of the Sinn Féin candidates - Cathy Bennett (32), Pauline Tully (23), Matt Carthy (8) - were slightly overestimated.
12:30pm: The official result of count one.
12:18pm: At last, white smoke! The result of the first count is in. As expected, Sinn Féin's Matt Carthy has topped the poll. Nobody has reached the quota (11,542). The four lowest candidates have been eliminated from the race and their votes will now be distributed in count two. Out of the race are Feargal Deery, Mark Moore, Jimmy Mee and Joseph Duffy.
12pm: It's noon, still no sign of the first count, we are being told it should be in the next ten minutes (mind you, we were told something similar 12 hours ago).
11:32am: Senator Robbie Gallagher has arrived at the count centre.
11:30am: They've gone back to weighing the bundles again. This is all about ensuring accuracy. This is the double, treble, quadruple, and even quintuple time the ballots have been checked. But 'measure twice, cut once' as someone said here. Could this help avoid a time intensive recount?
11:19am: Compared to 2020 (21,454), tallies appear to show Fine Gael getting a combined 14,721 first preferences across their three candidates.
11:12am: The mood is a little flat on the media gallery as we still await the announcement of the first count. As it's December 1, we wondered if a Christmas tree might lighten the mood?
10:47am: It's official - Cavan and Monaghan is now the last constituency out of 43 nationwide not to have declared the result of a first count.
10:45am: The wait continues in Cavan and Monaghan. Kingscourt's Val Martin of the Irish Freedom Party has also arrived at the count centre. Count staff are weighing the vote bundles again as last checks are complete.
10:25am: We expect at least four candidates to be eliminated in the first count. Nobody is expected to reach the quota.
10:08am: This election has thrown up quite a few fascinating conundrums. Matt Carthy had 16,310 first preferences in 2020, but has seen that halved as Sinn Féin looked to share his vote getting ability more evenly. Tallies have him claiming shy of 9,400 this time round. It had been suggested in the run up by some on the ground that Pauline Tully might be in bother. Hard to believe when she got 10,166 last time. Tallies have her getting nearly 6,500, not a disaster, but also not helped by running mate Cathy Bennett apparently gleaning over 1,000 first preferences from Cavan, with a further 1,800 + going Carthy's way. In the converse, Tully polled only a couple of hundred votes from Monaghan. As it stands, the party have enough votes for two quotas between them, but three doesn't go into two and they'll be keeping a keen eye on transfers.
10:05am: The Celt can reveal that questions have been raised over more than 40 unperforated ballot sheets in the constituency which were deemed invalid as a result.
Mr Smith informed the Celt this morning that he will make a comment on the matter once it has been fully investigated.
10:02am: Sinn Féin's Cathy Bennett, like yesterday, is the first of the candidates to arrive. She is certainly one of the biggest stories to emerge from yesterday, along with her party's vote management, Fine Gael's vote split, and the struggle of several established candidates.
10:01am: Returning Officer Joseph Smith expects that counting, and indeed recounting if necessary, will continue throughout the night and into the early hours of tomorrow morning.
10.00am: The count has officially recommenced here in Cavan, with the first count result due shortly.
9:45am: We're back, the doors are opening, media is assembling, cracking open laptops and bleary sipping from takeaway coffee mugs.
*** DAY 2 *** Election Blog 2024: Cavan Monaghan Decides
1:11am: The count has been adjourned until 10am tomorrow morning. There will be no result from the first count this evening. Good night/good morning - we will be back with you bright and early.
12:49am: Finally! After several false dawns we may have a count result to report in or around 10 minutes time.
12:35am: A break down of Shane P O'Reilly's (Independent Ireland) second preference votes makes for interesting reading. Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly looks to be the biggest beneficiary but even at that will it be enough to keep her in the race? TP O'Reilly of Fine Gael will have been relieved to see 513 come back his way. He did well from Shane P's hometown last time out, and definitely ceded ground to him in 2024. The next happiest will be Pauline Tully who narrows the gap on running mate Cathy Bennett, while Fianna Fáil's Niamh Smyth and Brendan Smith appear to make further ground on Robbie Gallagher. Only Matt Cathy and Lester Gordon stand to make gains in any significant way outside that grouping.
12:22am: Out of 43 constituencies nationwide, only Cavan Monaghan and Kildare North have yet to declare the results of their first counts. However, counting in Kildare North has been suspended until 9am. Adjudication of spoiled votes continues in Cavan Monaghan with the results of the first count expected by 1am.
00:16am: Spoiled votes are still being adjudicated on. Cavan-Monaghan and one other are the only constituencies in the country not to have completed a first count.
00:15am: WATCH
11:59pm: The time of the year, the need for better preparation, and voter fatigue so soon after June's local's may have played a factor in the low turnout in some areas, according to two local Fianna Fáil cllrs.
11:55pm: Perhaps looking for divine inspirations, but several Miraculous medals were found in tally boxes in Cavan-Monaghan. One was found in a box in Cavan and another discovered by count staff in Monaghan.
11:51pm: Adjudication of spoiled votes about to get underway in Cavan Monaghan as midnight approaches and we still waiting the result of the first count.
11:50pm: READ MORE - 'Nail biting finish' anticipated in Cavan Monaghan as three FF candidates remain in race
11.44pm: Val Martin was frustrated that so many like minded candidates split the vote on the migration issue.
10:40pm: The stacks are being organised into bundles of 1,000 each. On the media gantry meanwhile, the assembled media are like meerkats popping their heads up to peek every time someone inadvertently bumps of the mic-stand. It's getting to that stage of the evening when pretty much everyone is anxious for something to happen.
10:38pm: Things are quiet on the floor as counting continues and we near a possible first result. Meanwhile, in neighbouring Longford-Westmeath Fine Gael's Peter Burke has been elected on the first count.
10:06pm: Tally talk - Fianna Fáil's Robbie Gallagher saw his number 2's and 3's stay within the Monaghan area in the main. Curiously, there were quite a few ballots that selected Gallagher and then the National Party's Mark Moore or Val Martin from the Irish Freedom Party. David Maxwell and Matt Carthy picked up more than a few before Brendan Smith or party colleague Niamh Smith benefited.
The surprise for some in this election has been the success of Sinn Féin's Cathy Bennett. The Sinn Féin strategy continues to hold strong here, with Carthy appearing to get more than Tully, while Gallagher and again Martin of the Freedom Party also pick up as voters cast an eye elsewhere.
Pauline's Tully voters though stuck to the party line almost fastidiously, with the rare number 2 going Shane P O'Reilly's but really 4's and 5's heading across the board.
Niamh Smyth's voters favoured Brendan as a 2, or Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly, which is no great surprise given they share a town address.
Carmel Brady's went to the party, though otherwise appear destined for Aontú's O'Reilly and even Martin yet again who will have potentially been eliminated by the time these extra votes have time to count towards his overall tally.
The last two checked are Brendan Smith and Matt Carthy.
Smith's 2's looked to be going to Niamh Smyth, to Gallagher, but also to Pauline Tully; while beyond Sinn Féin Cathy's 2's and 3's land the way of Maxwell and even Niamh Smyth.
10:05pm: We are still a while away from a first count in Cavan and Monaghan. With 34/43 first counts complete nationwide, it's looking like we will be among the last. The count here is being directed by Des Maguire and Ger Finn, both senior retired figures with Cavan County Council, with a wealth of experience between them. With a record 20 candidates, the work is pain staking and meticulous. Count staff are working diligently. The returning officer is Joe Smith.
9:55pm: Aontú's Peadar Toibín has just taken a seat in Meath West
9:53pm: Read more - High hopes that FG can take one seat in Cavan Monaghan
9:44pm: A quick canvas of count stations for the main candidates has thrown up a couple of interesting talking points? The first is that a great many people ignored voting along party lines. Next, and no surprise, is that people in Monaghan voted in the main geographically. Thirdly, a lot of voters cast their favour based on gender.
Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly saw number 2's travel towards Cathy Bennett, Pauline Tully, Niamh Smyth, Brendan Smith and TP O'Reilly's. Her number 3's meanwhile were even more scattered than that.
Fine Gael's TP O'Reilly saw a great many of his number 2's and 3's go to Carmel Brady and David Maxwell, but after that to Shane P O'Reilly and also Sarah O'Reilly.
David Maxwell again saw votes stick to party candidates, before the likes of Matt Carthy, and even the Irish Freedom Party's Val Martin picked up a few further down the ballot.
9:35pm: Simon Harris has just been elected in Wicklow.
9:20pm: Looking over the shoulder as Independent Shane P O'Reilly's votes are sorted, it's interesting to see that the majority of his number 2s and 3s are all staying nearer the bottom of the ballot sheet- Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly and Fine Gael's TP O'Reilly. Both are close to him by geographical proximity, though it is unlikely that any voter's number 3s will come into play here with so few of the election hopefuls expected to reach quota.
9:16pm: Tally talk. Last time out, Deputy Brendan Smith polled more than 1,600 first preferences than running mate Deputy Niamh Smyth but by the time they were both elected on the 11th count, just 53 votes separated them. This time out, tallies put about 847 votes between the pair on the first count. If Niamh still proves more transfer friendly (and there are a large number of candidates in her area geographically) she could leapfrog Brendan Smith.
8:54pm: An historic 20 candidates running for election in Cavan-Monaghan made sorting the ballot sheets that much trickier for count staff. The sheer length of the paper required extra time during the verification period. They're now being sorted and separated into piles of 1,000 each. Looking over at the Matt Carthy area and the piles are stacking up.
8:39pm: Fianna Fáil's Brendan Smith proved most popular amongst voters who sent in their vote by mail.
8:36pm: Sinn Féin leader Mary Lou McDonald is over the line in Dublin Central
8:05pm: Despite Cavan having the lion's share of registered voters in this constituency, the return has been markedly in favour of Monaghan.
8pm: How are you enjoying our analysis so far? Have you read:
Our a dive into the Cootehill tallies and saw how Sinn Fein's vote leaked into Monaghan.
or
A closer look at Ballyconnell Central NS, according to tallies, shows stiff competition between Fianna Fail’s Deputy Smith and Sinn Fein’s Deputy Tully.
competition between Fianna Fail’s Deputy Smith and Sinn Fein’s Deputy Tully.
7:55pm: We're expecting a first count at about 10pm, and a possible finish after midnight with a long day ahead of us tomorrow.
7.34pm: In Bailieborough the two local candidates took half the first preferences available.
7pm: Fewer than 50% cast their a vote in eight areas.
6:05pm: The quota, according to tallies, could be as much as 11,800. This indicates a number of things, the first that the total turnout is as much as 6% below what the poll was in 2020 (72,878). In 2020, percentage turnout was 66.14%.
A total of 60,063 people are eligible to vote in Cavan and 49,089 in Monaghan, leaving a total poll of 109,152, with 20 candidates- 10 in Cavan, 9 in Monaghan and one living outside the constituency- vying for five seats.
Turnout percentages were mixed across the two counties.
In Cavan Town, at St Clare's National School where there are 10 booths, turnout at 8.30pm is 41.31%.
Turnout in Shercock was 63%, and above 60% in Mullagh.
At 8.50pm, in Kilmore box 1, turnout was 57.6% and in box 2 exactly 57%
Mullahoran had a turnout of 64% by the time polls closed.
At the Boy's NS in Castleblayney, Co Monaghan, which has eight booths, turnout was 48% at around 9pm.
Turnout was at 16% at St Tiarnach's N.S in Clones across five booths was above 50%, and at St. Louis in Monaghan Town 59.1% at 10pm.
5.55pm: First time general election candidate Lester Gordon says this is not his year, however has already began his campaign for the next general election.
5.35pm: Matt Carthy TD has arrived to the count centre and says Sinn Fèin have a “fighting chance” of obtaining three seats in Cavan Monaghan. He expects “inter Cavan transfers” will “benefit” Deputy Tully and “bring her very firmly into the race.” Watch below.
4:45pm: Deputy Matt Carthy (SF), who's set to top the poll, has just arrived at the count centre. He's analysing the tally numbers with her mentor Caoimghín Ó Caoláin.
4.40pm: A closer look at Ballyconnell Central NS, according to tallies, shows stiff competition between Fianna Fail’s Deputy Smith and Sinn Fein’s Deputy Tully.
4pm: Fine Gael's Carmel Brady and TP O'Reilly are neck and neck, and one of those will be hoping to keep their nose in front to stand a fighting chance. Either of those two going out will be interesting in terms of how their transfers boost the two remaining candidates, in particular David Maxwell was bumped out of the top five with the tallying of ballots from anywhere west of the Lavey Inn.
He got just two votes in a box in the Kilmore area, where Heather Humphreys would have done particularly well in the past.
But he remains well ahead of Brady and O'Reilly as of now by several thousand tallied votes.
In what order possible eliminations happen will also play a factor. If Independent Ireland's Shane P O'Reilly goes out will that benefit TP more than most?
3:51pm: It could be the case that none of the candidates elected reach the quota required. From the four bottom candidates, there will only be about 400 votes to divide. They're all from Monaghan and non-party (Feargal Deery, Joseph Duffy and Jimm Stavros Mee) apart from the National Party's Mark Moore.
Realistically, these votes could scatter anywhere.
The Green's Eddie O'Gara is only on 731, while Liberty Republic's Shane Republic's Shane Mulligan is on 514. O'Gara's could in theory benefit Sinn Féin, and Cathy Bennett most seeing as both are from Monaghan Town.
She though might have to wait some time again before a significant swing in her favour with the majority of the next batch of expected eliminations coming from Cavan.
After that there will be a number of others scraping the 1,000 mark, like PBP-Solidarity's Emma Hendrick and Lester Gordon, the latter of which you'd likely suspect will swing towards Pauline Tully given their geographic proximity.
Beyond that, expect to see the Irish Freedom Party Val Martin excluded from the race, according to tallies. He got over 1,200, a significant amount, and together with Hendrick and Gordon they could yet have an important say in which way this swings next.
Most interested in seeing how these votes split will be Independent Ireland's Shane P O'Reilly in eleventh and Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly who sits in eighth as of now.
3:41pm: Here's an update on where we stand after 100% of the tallies are counted.
3:38pm: Returning Officer Joseph Smith approaches the microphone and everyone stops and holds their breath. Everyone thinks there is an announcement coming. Nope, there is a car blocking traffic outside.
3:37pm: Fine Gael's Carmel Brady and Independent Lester Gordon have arrived.
3:34pm: Sorting is taking place.
3:32pm: READ MORE - TALLIES: Reasons to be happy, 1, 2, 3 for Sinn Féin
3:07pm: The verification of votes is complete and the first count has now begun. The announcement was made by returning officer Joseph Smith.
3:01pm: We're at 100% people. Tallies all totted and accounted for. As of now, and these are still only tallies, but Matt Carthy and Cathy Bennett are out in front, followed by Pauline Tully in third, Brendan Smith in fourth, and Robbie Gallagher in fifth. If we were to end it now it would be three SF and two FF. But its not over, and there is plenty of proper counting yet to do. David Maxwell is in sixth, followed by Niamh Smyth in seventh.
2:59pm: A large crowd have gathered around the tally screen.
2:57pm: We took a dive into the Cootehill tallies and saw how Sinn Fein's vote leaked into Monaghan.
2:53pm: The trickeration of tallies. Over 99% accounted for and Brendan Smith has surged into third, with Pauline Tully in fourth and Robbie Gallagher now in fifth. David Maxwell is out of the top five, but still ahead of Niamh Smyth.
2:47pm: READ MORE- Cootehill goes to Carmel
2:46pm: David Maxwell has been bumped down to fifth by Pauline Tully, and looks to be caught too by Brendan Smith. 97% of boxes tallied.
2:41pm: Nearly there with 100% of tallies factored in, but with boxes yet to come from Swanlinbar and Bawnboy. You'd imagine they'd swing favourably towards Brendan Smith, as have most the West Cavan boxes. Similarly, for Pauline Tully who is now just short of catching David Maxwell in fourth. These are just tallies. Official counting has yet to start.
2:34pm: Potentially as many as four candidates and maybe more could be eliminated in the first count, according to tally reading. These are all candidates who have polled less than 200 votes.
2:31pm: As of now, Pauline Tully is still in fifth, a few hundred votes behind David Maxwell in fourth. But critically perhaps, Brendan Smith has overtaken Niamh Smyth who was in second place earlier in the day and has now been pushed out to seventh. For Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil it will all come down to who is eliminated first. Sinn Féin meanwhile will be hoping to pick up additional support on transfers from the plethora of candidates set to be eliminated in the first few rounds.
2:28pm: Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly has done really well, and much better than in 2020 when she polled 3,840 total. She looks on course to better that, with tallies so far indicating she has received close to 5,000 votes with 95% of boxes checked.
2:24pm: For reference, the quota in 2020 was 12,031. Carthy got 16,310 first preferences last time out. He might not even make quota this time. Pauline Tully was elected almost five years ago in the second round only after Cathy's surplus was divided. Cathy Bennett's emergence has caught many by surprise. Her success so far might be the biggest story from this election.
2:15pm: With West Cavan boxes being tallied, Pauline Tully is now up to fifth. Three Sinn Féin candidates from this constituency. These counties have bucked the trend before. Niamh Smyth in sixth and Brendan Smith is catching up with home ground votes coming his way.
2:10pm: Its been said before and is certainly ringing true again. If the option is there, Monaghan first preferences will always go to Monaghan candidates, whereas Cavan voters will spread further across the board. Carthy and Bennett claiming over 2,500 votes between them from the Breffni county is an incredible return, Robbie Gallagher over 300, and David Maxwell almost 500. There were plenty of other smaller returns, significant in the grand scheme of things for candidates like Shane Mulligan, Eddie O'Gara and even Joseph Duffy. Monaghan rarely votes Cavan, though this election Sarah O'Reilly has tallied over 1,500 for herself, as did Niamh Smyth, the biggest return for any Cavan candidate north of Clogher Market.
2:05pm: Boxes not yet tallied are from Ballinagh, Bawnboy, Belturbet, one from Killeshandra, one from Milltown, two from Swanlinbar, two from Butlersbridge, three from Gaelscoil Bhreifne, two from St Clare's in Cavan Town, one from Crubany. From Monaghan, one box left to be tallied from Kileevan, and one from Magherarney.
2pm: 90% of boxes tallied now. Matt Carthy sits at the top with nearly 9,000 votes, with an incredible over 1,500 of those first preferences coming from Cavan. Cathy Bennett in second got nearly 1,000 votes from Cavan. Neither a good result for Pauline Tully who sits in sixth place with over 5,200 votes, behind Niamh Smyth in fifth. In between still in David Maxwell and Robbie Gallagher.
1:41pm: Just under 40 boxes left to be tallied now. A little over a dozen boxes left to be opened. Left are boxes from West Cavan- Belturbet, Ballyconnell, Killeshandra and some from Gaelscoil Bhreifne. In Monaghan its boxes from Killevan and St Louis Girl's.
1:36pm: Back to those magic numbers. Matt Carthy is the only candidate over 8,000 votes. That won't help Pauline Tully who was the biggest beneficiary of his surplus last time out- but they only had two candidates in 2020. Robbie Gallagher, David Maxwell and Cathy Bennett, Pauline Tully and Niamh Smyth are the only ones over 5,000 votes. 85% of the boxes tallied.
1:33pm: Heather Humphrey's exit has skewed this election certainly. With so many Cavan candidates on even terms we could see four Monaghan candidates take seats before this weekend is out. 83% of boxes tallied now and no major change in the standings. Still Matt Carthy out in front, with Cathy Bennett in second, Robbie Gallagher in third, David Maxwell in fourth, and Niamh Smyth in fifth. Sixth is Pauline Tully who has now edged out Sarah O'Reilly in seventh, Brendan Smith in eighth and TP O'Reilly in ninth. Carmel Brady is in tenth.
1:29pm: Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly has done impressively well in Monaghan according to tallies. She has polled upwards of 1,300 votes, second only behind Niamh Smyth.
1:20pm: The state of play, according to the tallies, with more than 75% of boxes open.
1:16pm: Its generally accepted, with the quota expected to be around 10,000 again, that the safe point for a candidate to be in the race for seat is around 5,000 votes. With an historic 20 names on the ballot this time round that may need to be closer to 6,000 in order to stand a chance. 8,000 is probably the safe space. It is likely that the majority of candidates from Cavan-Monaghan to make the 34th will get in without reaching the hallowed quota mark.
1:11pm: Boxes at St Clare's in Cavan Town are being opened. Brendan Smith did well here as expected, as did Niamh Smyth and Pauline Tully. Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly has been edged out to seventh place according to tallies.
1:08pm: One of the many interesting reads from the early tallies is how well Cathy Bennett has done, polling upwards of 750 votes in Cavan. As of now that pushes Pauline Tully out of contention, and the prospect of Monaghan returning four candidates. That would be an incredible return for the county which, when the election was first called only had three declared names before others were added.
12:57pm: With two thirds of the ballot boxes opened, here's how the tally stands. A lot of Cavan Town and west Cavan boxes still to be opened.
12:41pm: READ: “I think it is and I think its too close to call at this stage. A number of people are potentially in the mix."
12:40pm: Watch below for a tour of the count centre here in Cavan!
12:32pm: Sinn Féin are famed for their vote management, but Corcaghan has provided an interesting snapshot of how voters make up their own mind: A snap shot of vote management in Monaghan
12:29pm: Fine Gael Senator Joe O'Reilly is in the house. He says its too close to call. Story to follow.
12:24pm: The latest from the tallies still has Matt Carthy far in front, with close to 1 in 5 people appearing to vote for him with more than 53% of boxes opened. Matt Carthy is still in front, followed by Niamh Smyth, David Maxwell in third, followed by Robbie Gallagher and Sarah O'Reilly. But still the West Cavan and Cavan Town boxes have to be opened.
12:03pm: There is an army of tallymen here, and people feeding information to them live. This is then collated centrally and once done a feeding frenzy ensues with media like ourselves checking for any possible updates.
11:52am: Out of a box opened in Mountnugent, Pauline Tully and TP O'Reilly appear to have done best, followed by Brendan Smith and then Niamh Smyth. Others to claim double figures are Shane P O'Reilly and local Independent candidate Lester Gordon.
11:46am: The vote looks evenly split from a box opened at Latton NS in Monaghan, with Robbie Gallagher appearing to benefit most. The Donegal native has close ties to the area. The 'Heather' factor certainly seems to be playing through, with David Maxwell doing well, and so too Carmel Brady. Niamh Smith is another doing well from this box, following by Matt Carthy and Cathy Bennett. Brendan Smith polled just one vote from this area and TP O'Reilly landed zero. Surprisingly giving the geographic disparity, Irish Freedom Party's Val Martin pulled double figures as did Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly.
11:41: In Wicklow, tallies suggest Minister for Health Stephen Donnelly (FF) is in bother.
11:36am: Back to 2020 in the Cavan-Belturbet MD area, Brendan Smith didn't go pass the speed sign at Poles before he had got 2,815. His next nearest rival was Pauline Tully (2,465). After that it was Heather Humphreys (1,046) and Matt Carthy (930). What makes for interesting reading looking back is how the vote will split this time round. Where does Humphrey's vote go? Will Sarah O'Reilly poll as well again (461). So far no boxes from this area have been opened.
11:30am: Here are the top five candidates as it stands with a third of the boxes open. It should be noted that no west Cavan or Cavan town boxes have yet been opened.
1. Matt Carthy (SF)
2. Niamh Smyth (FF)
3. David Maxwell (FG)
4. Sarah O'Reilly (Aontú)
5. Robbie Gallagher (FF)
11:28am: A third of the boxes are now open and tallied at the count centre. Still Sinn Féin candidates are commanding 34% of first preference votes.
11:20am: “It’s still in play” was Deputy Pauline Tully’s response on the possibility of three Sinn Féin TD’s in Cavan Monaghan. Reporter Damian McCarney caught up with Deputy Tully as tallies are underway in the count centre. Watch below.
11am: With 22% of boxes open, here is the order of candidates emerging.
10:55am: In a box that came of of St Anne's in Bailieborough Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly tallied twice as many votes as Niamh Smyth.
10:51am: With 22% of the boxes open to day, tallies indicate Sinn Féin have received 1 in 3 votes. Slightly more boxes from Cavan than Monaghan have been opened so far.
10:49am: There were a number of big questions coming into the 2024 General Election. Cavan-Monaghan, which first came together in 1977, has always been a weather vane for which way the political wind is blowing nationally.
10:44am: The Ballyjamesduff area polled best for Pauline Tully (3,185) in 2020, followed by TP O'Reilly (2,567), Brendan Smith (2,078) and Niamh Smyth (1,358). After that the numbers dropped below 1,000. It was still good though for Matt Carthy (995) and Heather Humphreys (819).
10:37am: Our Celt filing system bore fruits this morning. The 2020 Dáil election results for Bailieborough-Cootehill area showed Niamh Smyth (2,187), Pauline Tully (2,617) faring best, followed by Brendan Smith (1,751), Heather Humphreys (1,702). After that it was Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly (1,474), TP O'Reilly (1,455) and Matt Carthy (1,279).
10:30am: A box from Broomfield in Monaghan was again overwhelmingly in favour of Matt Carthy, followed by Robbie Gallagher and David Maxwell. From the Cavan front Niamh Smyth received 24 votes according to the tally, with Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly also polling well.
10:26am: Brendan Smith pulled 68 votes from a box opened in Kingscout, twice that of Niamh Smyth. Pauline Tully tallied more than 40 herself, as did Matt Carthy. Surprises perhaps are that Cathy Bennett received a double figure number of votes. Local man and the Irish Freedom Party's Val Martin got 30 votes from that same box, with Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly not far behind.
10:19am: The latest from the floor shows now major change at the top. Matt Carthy looks on course to top the poll. After that, with boxes in Cootehill, Mullagh, Bailieborough, Bunnoe, and Kill opened, and Carrickmacross, Ballybay, and Castleblayney, Fine Gael's Carmel Brady is in second place according to VERY EARLY tallies, followed by Aontú's Sarah O'Reilly, Niamh Smyth and Robbie Gallagher. But again to stress, these are heart-land boxes for some of these candidates. No boxes have been opened, and very few from the likes of West Cavan have been tallied.
10:15am: Sinn Féin's Cathy Bennett was the only candidate here up until two minutes ago when colleague Pauline Tully just arrived. We're up to two out of 20 now.
10:06am: The tally, led by Sinn Féin, will start to show trends in the next hours or so.
9:56am: The view from one tally output. Niamh Smyth, Shane P O'Reilly, David Maxwell, Robbie Gallagher, Carmel Brady, and Cathy Bennett all appear to be polling well as of now. But the major caveat is that this is read from mainly Monaghan boxes and also Bailieborough. There has been no boxes opened yet from Virginia, Mullagh, or West Cavan yet.
9:49am:
9:46am: At this early stage, Sinn Féin are still hoping to pull off a major upset and claim three seats.
'Nothing is set in stone' - says Cllr Cathy Bennett
9:35am: Neglected to mention the earlier post the pressence of former Cllr and Fine Gael stalwart Paddy Smith, and Monaghan Sinn Féin cllr Séan Conlan. Now also local election Aontú candidate Grainne McPhilips.
9:23am: Early tally perceptions show Sinn Féin's Matt Cathy doing well (Donamoyne) as is Fine Gael's David Maxwell. So too Robbie Gallagher. But in at least one box coming out of Castleblayney Fianna Fáil's Niamh Smyth appears to be polling well. She has a constituency office in the town.
9:13am: A few familiar faces have graced us already among the army of tallymen eagerly keeping tabs as boxes are opened. Sinn Féin statesman Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin was organising people at the door before boxes were opened. There are several councillors too in the mix. Noel Connell and Stiofan Conaty are milling about, and Fianna Fáil Senator Diarmuid Wilson is currently chatting to former Cavan cllr Fergal Curtin. The only candidate here so far is Sinn Féin's Cathy Bennett. Former Fine Gael cllr John O'Hare is also here, an veteran of elections.
9:10am: For the uninitiated this is pretty much like early Christmas for anyone who loves news, current affairs and politics. The Celt team will be keeping our readers up to date with news, interviews and views from the counting floor throughout the day, so stay tuned.
9am: And we're off! The first boxes are being opened at the Cavan Leisure Centre as the count gets underway for the Cavan Monaghan Constituency. The tallymen (and women) are poised and ready. It's going to be a long haul but the Celt news team will be here until the wee hours to keep you updated with emerging trends throughout the day.