Poll flags close fight for final two seats
Historically, when the Cavan-Monaghan constituency has been a five seater, the election race has run tight, and this contest will be no different if previously unpublished constituency poll data is anything to go by.
The Ireland Thinks/Irish Independent poll, carried out conjunction with a national bookmaker, suggests that Cavan-Monaghan might throw up at least one major electoral surprise.
The data they’ve collated suggests the main Fianna Fáil seat is likely to return to Monaghan with sitting TD, Niamh Smyth from Bailieborough, set to lose out.
It also places former Fianna Fáil, now Independent Ireland candidate, Shane P. O’Reilly, as being marginally ahead of four other candidates tightly grouped geographically in the east of the county.
While two seats for Sinn Féin are by no means guaranteed, by order of elimination between Deputy Smyth, Fine Gael’s T.P. O’Reilly and Aontú’s Sarah O’Reilly, indications are that this could benefit Brendan Smith (FF) in staying just ahead of Mullagh’s Cllr O’Reilly (II).
The feeling overall, which matches with what The Anglo-Celt has been hearing on the ground anecdotally, is that one Sinn Féin, one Fine Gael and one Fianna Fáil seat are safe, with Pauline Tully (SF) expected to scrape the fourth, following the elimination of party colleague Cathy Bennett’s exit and Matt Carthy’s predicted surplus.
Accordingly, Deputy Carthy will top the poll, followed by David Maxwell who stands to be the only one to benefit from Fine Gael running three candidates following the late departure of the now retiring Minister for Rural Affairs, Heather Humphreys.
Seat number three will go to Fianna Fáil’s Robbie Gallagher, with a fight for the final two between Deputies Tully, Smith and Cllrs O’Reilly (II) and O’Reilly (Aon), the latter of whom, the poll predicts, as finishing ahead of Deputy Smyth (FF), who she replaced on Cavan County Council in 2016.
However, the gap between them is near negligible terms, meaning that an extended count and even recount could be on the cards.
Elsewhere, the poll has it that the Green’s Eddie O’Gara could fare better than Carmel Brady from Tullyvin, added to Fine Gael’s election ticket post-convention by party HQ, Sinn Féin’s Cllr Bennett, and a host of others.
A total of 761 people were questioned as part of the Ireland Thinks assessment, which has an accounted margin of error of just 2.2% before findings were reported.
It was one of six constituencies across Ireland where Ireland Thinks, often recognised as one of the most accurate polling agencies, carried out a deep dive on which way locals might vote.
The poll results come with a caveat - the data was collected on Thursday and Friday, November 21 and 22, almost a week before the publication of the latest Irish Times/Ipsos B&A opinion poll, which references a potential six point drop for Fine Gael down as far as 19%.
That particular poll was carried out between Wednesday and Saturday, November 20-23, and it indicates Fianna Fáil has risen two points to 21% and Sinn Féin up one point to 20%.
Independents, including Independent Ireland, are according to it, now down three points to 17%; the Green Party rises by one point to 4%, with Aontú unchanged on 3%.
The poll was based upon 1,200 face-to-face interviews and its accuracy is estimated at plus or minus 2.8%.