ELECTION SPECULATION: The race is hotting up in Cavan and Monaghan

Even those planning to run in the next General Election can’t predict when it might take place. Entering Autumn, speculation of a November election is rife with the 15th being touted as the most likely date. Not even those closest can reveal the date as now. Regardless the next general election must take place no later than March 2025.

With five seats up for grabs in the Cavan Monaghan constituency, The Anglo-Celt can confirm some of the candidate names expected to be printed on the ballot paper.

All sitting TDs - Heather Humphreys (FG); Brendan Smith and Niamh Smyth (FF); Pauline Tully and Matt Carthy (SF) are seeking re-election.

Fine Gael’s Cllr T.P. O’Reilly is expected to be back having just missed out in 2020.

First elected to Cavan County Council in 2019, the current cathaoirleach was the third councillor to be returned to the Ballyjamesduff Municipal District in the local election in June with a total 1,715 votes.

Generally speaking, he needs to poll better than last time out when he came in sixth overall with a total of 8,646 votes.

Cllr O’Reilly confirmed, so far, there had been two nominations for Fine Gael- himself and Minister Humphreys.

“That’s the way it’s looking at the minute,” he said.

“It’s good to get the nomination and it’ll be a hard seat to win that last seat but we’re up for the challenge and we’ll give it as good a run as anyone else,” Cllr O’Reilly told the Celt this week.

Asked if there’s a possibility of a November election, he stated “the speculation is out there, no more than anyone else, I can’t say.”

He revealed he had raised that very topic with Taoiseach Simon Harris during his recent visit to Virginia Show, to which Harris responded “it’s anytime between now and next March.”

“I said it to Simon down at the show and that was the response I got,” he recalled.

Fine Gael’s Trevor Smith confirmed he will not be among those contesting the next general election, but instead is “concentrating on being a councillor” and “supporting” the two candidates on the Fine Gael ticket.

Conventions

The Fine Gael selection takes place next Thursday (September 12) in the Errigal Country House Hotel in Cootehill at 7:30pm.

Details of the Fianna Fáil convention have yet to be confirmed by party headquarters meanwhile.

Deputy Brendan Smith says the full list of nominees has yet to be revealed, or how many candidates will run and if there will be a joint convention for the constituency or a separate one held for each county.

“What we hear on the grapevine, however, is that all constituency conventions will be held by the end of September,” Deputy Smith told the Celt.

The Sinn Féin Selection Convention took place last Tuesday night, September 3, also in the Errigal Hotel in Cootehill, with Deputies Pauline Tully and Matt Carthy both getting the nod.

READ MORE: SF selected election candidate

It’s unclear whether the party intends to add a third, or even fourth candidate to the ticket, but the party’s Ard Comhairle could choose to do so at a later date.

Campaign

Speaking to this newspaper before the event, Deputy Tully said “the housing situation” would be something that Sinn Féin would be “fighting the election on”.

As spokesperson for disability and carers, she said more support and children’s services would be a “big issue” and something that they would be campaigning on.

“There’s so little respite available in this area,” she said.

Deputy described how they have been “trying to get a second special school in the constituency”.

“There’s one in Cavan servicing both counties [Holy Family], it’s not sufficient, it’s at capacity, there’s a waiting list and it’s not fair on children having to travel.

“That would be a big issue for us, trying to get a special school for Monaghan and therefore feeding up more spaces in Cavan.”

Deputy Tully would also like to see “a rollout of more qualified teachers” in special education to allow more special units and classes to come available.

She also called for “a lot more awareness in all public sector buildings” for disability services.

Add to that the annual scramble for school bus tickets and Sinn Féin, despite recent polls, are confident that the government have questions to answer on the doorsteps.

“We want to see that end where children [that would] be getting tickets on the concessionary basis shouldn’t be wondering every summer are they going to get them for the next year.”

Deputy Tully said Sinn Féin would invest €250 million over a term of government “in ensuring that there is additional capacity” and “actually changing the eligibility requirements” for school bus tickets.

“It’s only fair and it’s also environmentally friendly,” she remarked.

Asked about her party’s chances in a general election in the constituency, she said: “We don’t take anything for granted, we’ll have to go out and knock on every door and ask for every person’s vote.

“We have policies but we can’t implement them unless we get into government or the leading party in the next government.

“We feel our chances are good in this constituency, we hold two seats, we’re relatively confident about holding them again but I mean, we don’t take anything for granted.”

Local election poll topper in the Ballyjamesduff MD, Shane P O’Reilly is another confirmed name. A founding member of Independent Ireland the local councillor says he is currently working on finding “a running mate in Monaghan at the moment”.

Kingscourt native Kristofer Sheckleton, who missed out on a seat in the June local elections, also for Independent Ireland, has ruled himself out however.

He is throwing his support behind Cllr S.P. O’Reilly.

Aontú’s Sarah O’Reilly will also contest the election.

She also ran the last time out and finished eighth in the race for five seats.

The Bailieborough native though topped the poll yet again in the Bailieborough Cootehill MD in June’s local’s with 1,770 first preferences.

As county councillor she has been “consistently calling” the government out on issues such as the care and family referendum, hate speech, immigration, women’s rights, the dangers of a cashless society, homelessness, the health and the housing crisis.

“I will give the people of Cavan and Monaghan a consistent, tried and tested proven alternative, I will continue to listen to the people and I will represent their views, that is always how I have seen my job,” she said. “I will also question wasteful government spending on the tax payers’ behalf, something I feel is not being done near enough.

“I feel I’ve done as much as I can at a local level and I feel that Dáil Éireann is somewhere I could bring these issues along with other issues a lot further. I am ready to take the next step and bring ordinary people’s issues to the next level,” she said.

One name definitely missing from last time out is that of Labour’s Liam van der Spek. He is “not planning” on contesting the next election. Speaking to The Anglo-Celt, he said he had run in three without success and, while he is “not sure” whether he is finished with politics completely yet, he does not intend on running next time out.

Green Party’s Tate Donnelly on the other hand hasn’t “made that decision yet” if he planned to stand for the the Green Party again. The Carrickmacross native came in ninth in the 2020 election.

“We’ll have a candidate,” he assured, but remained tight-lipped until such time as their nomination process takes place in the coming weeks.

Cootehill’s Gary Cosgrove also didn’t rule running but said the experience of the local election was “tiresome” with a lot of work involved “keeping up your other work life as well.”

“It gave me an insight into how important to people in their area politics was, local politics anyway in particular.

“My policies were probably far reaching than just local stuff and I was looking at a bigger picture really.

“They tended to vote with their normal parties and they didn’t really change, they find it hard to change,” he speculated, describing how they went with the “reliability” of Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin.

Could this be the chance for Cosgrove’s policies on immigration “or lack of one that’s in the country”, local housing policies and support for small businesses?

“It could be, I am in discussions with other like minded people,” he revealed.

“For now we haven’t said yes or no if I’m being honest. We have a lot of stuff ready to go if we had to go,” he said of his four person team.

Monaghan Fianna Fáil Senator Robbie Gallagher is another name cropping up; while speculated remains on the Cavan side of the county border over Shamrock Independents’ Lester Gordon from Finea, who, despite not securing a seat in the June, polled well prompting suggestion he may throw his hat in the ring for a shot at the Dáil.

The date may not yet be confirmed but the race, it appears, is very much already on!