Toss of a coin in Bailieborough-Cootehill MD local election race

Almost half of the 13 candidates standing in Cootehill Bailieborough will win a seat in the electoral area. That said, you would have to imagine that those already occupying seats - all of who are running again - have the strongest chance of retaining them. This is not simply due to voter recognition, but also party apparatus - of the three Cavan MDs, this is the only one not to return an independent in 2019.

Of course nothing is straight forward. The incumbents will be vulnerable to the ubiquitous roads and housing issues as they can only bemoan the lack of government funding, specifically that rural bête verde Minister Eamon Ryan.

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The Bailieborough Cootehill Electoral Area has its own idiosyncracies which may well determine where voters put their number one preference. For example it is here that the refugee issue has been most apparent with the saga of the Sunday protests outside Cootehill’s White Horse Hotel by people claiming to be fearful of refugees, who they described as “unvetted and undocumented males” being accommodated. Then in the east of the electoral area will the looming climax of the Interconnector controversy have an impact on voters?

Cllr Clifford Kelly - who has a standing motion seeking an update on the Eirgrid plan in every monthly meeting - suspects it was a factor in his slim defeat in 2014. The Fianna Fáil stalwart was back to claim a seat in 2019. Kelly’s political domain of Kingscourt is largely curtailed by County Meath, with only Muff and Corlea supplementing his hometown vote to any significant degree.

- To view the candidates' individual profiles, click on their names -

Cllr Kelly's campaign received a major boost when party colleague Francie McDermott pulled out of the race at the last minute. He was a proven vote getter in 2019 in Shercock and hinterland where over 600 of his 900-plus first preferences were generated. Kelly - buoyed by this week’s major investment in his home town - will be knocking on the doors of his Shercock neighbours, eager to ensure those McDermott votes retain party loyalty.

Aiden Fitzpatrick holds Fianna Fáil’s other council seat. Having made consistent contributions to the council over the course of his first term, he will hope that his record stands to him.

Probably more significant to his fortunes is the fact that Fianna Fáil were by far the most popular party in the area last time out with 40% of the vote as compared to FG’s 30% and Sinn Féin’s modest 13%.

Fitzpatrick however is fishing for votes in the notoriously crowded waters of Cootehill. For example in 2019 only one candidate - Carmel Brady - received over 100 votes in a Cootehill box.

They fielded five candidates in 2019 however, compared to just three this year. Completing the FF ticket is Niall Smith, who will be focussing his hunt for votes in Bailieborough. While this is only Smith’s first campaign, being a lifelong party activist, with strong FF family credentials, make the electrician a genuine contender for a seat.

Fine Gael have just two candidates running this year, outgoing councillors Carmel Brady and Val Smith. They had four last time out with Bailieborough’s John O’Hare and Knockbride’s Shirley Hall completing the ticket. With no candidates in the urban settings of Kingscourt or Bailieborough, it will make canvassing the area much more onerous. They are likely to benefit from the largesse of Heather Humphreys over the last few years as Rural Development minister.

Smith’s electioneering pamphlet is an eye-catching list of money he claims to have helped secure for Lavey, Laragh, Killinkere, Ballyhaise and Redhills.

The Fine Gael duo will hope that they are within a hair’s breadth of the quota after the first preferences are counted as, beyond Brady’s fellow Cootehillians, it is hard to see where significant transfers will come from.

The nightmare scenario for the Fine Gael candidates will be if they are waiting to the final count before one cannibalises the other.

Political cannibalism isn’t a risk for Sarah O’Reilly as she is Aontu’s only candidate in the area. Having topped the poll, not just in Bailieborough Cootehill, but also in the county, it would be a major surprise if she can’t hold onto enough of those 1,704 first preferences to retain the seat.

O’Reilly gained the most votes in each of Bailieborough’s eight boxes and she has been a significant contributor to council debates in the past five years. Against that, the abortion issue which helped to establish Aontu in the public’s mind was much more to the fore in 2019.

Sinn Féin had a miserable election in 2019 with Bailieborough’s Paddy McDonald the only candidate to win a seat in the whole county. They will hope that their rise in the national polls will see them fare much better this time out.

While other parties have struggled to inject fresh blood into their ticket, Sinn Féin has two young newcomers in geographically well distributed locations - gaelgeoir Stiofán Conaty in Ballyhaise/Redhills and factory worker Marina McEntee over in Kingscourt/Kilann.

Conaty will no doubt do well in his home patch, which proved a happy hunting ground for Charlie Boylan down through the years, but can he attract the requisite weight of votes from Cootehill to get him over the line? He’ll also have proven vote getter Val Smith seeking those same first preferences.

McEntee is focusing strongly on the housing issue - an issue of which she has first hand experience. Appealing to younger people, and having worked in Manor Farm, she may well attract new votes into the arena as she competes directly with Fianna Fáil’s Clifford Kelly for those eastern votes.

Elbowing in on the Kingscourt/Shercock contest is Kristofer Shekleton who is running under the Independent Ireland banner. The former chef and current political lobbyist is a fine communicator in person, able to get across his clear thoughts concisely. It’s how he communicates virtually, however, which strengthens his chances as a possible contender, as his Facebook following of circa 20K is not to be sniffed at.

The candidates list is completed by a number of independents.

Two Cootehill natives are standing as independents, Fiona McCormack and Garry Cosgrove. The migrant issue is central to their campaigns as their political aspirations have been sparked by the protests outside the White Horse Hotel.

Last to throw their hat in the ring is John (Sean) O'Reilly from Kingscourt. The father of two has a background in construction and farming.

While all candidates have said that the refugee issue has cropped up on the doors, none of those from the other parties have signalled it as the main concern.

It will be interesting to see how much their combined vote will come to, and if they are eliminated, where those votes transfer to.