Constituency report out tomorrow

BOUNDARY Cavan-Monaghan likely to be retained

It’s expected that Cavan-Monaghan will be confirmed today as a five-seat constituency for the purposes of the next General Election, although population increases in both counties mean that, for the first ever, each county has enough people to qualify for three TDs each.

Details of the latest constituency review, drawn up by the Electoral Commission, will be presented before the Houses of the Oireachtas this morning (Wednesday), August 30, before being made public.

The strong feeling among TDs in Cavan is that the five seat-constituency including Cavan and Monaghan will be retained, and the portion of North Meath, added in 2017, returned to the Royal county.

The fate of rural parts of North Meath was one previously experienced by West Cavan in 2012 when sliced from Cavan-Monaghan and added to a patchwork including Sligo, Leitrim and South Donegal.

The next General Election is due to take place in March 2025 when the number of sitting TDs could rise by as many as 21 from the current 160, marking the first increase in the number since 1981.

The circa 400 Meath votes were required to pass the population threshold to justify five Dáil seats in Cavan and Monaghan.

According to the most recent Census 2020 results, the population of Cavan grew by seven per cent to 81,704, up by 5,528 people between April 2016 and April 2022; and by 6% to 65,288 in Monaghan for the same period, up 3,902.

Of the 556 submissions received by the Commission ahead of its boundary review, 14 related to the Cavan-Monaghan constituency.

In a detailed submission, Fianna Fáil’s Brendan Smith cited preliminary census results, which showed the population growth in counties Cavan and Monaghan.

He noted that by returning to the Cavan-Monaghan county borders, the constituency more closely meets the target population of 27,950 per TD.

Claiming that the population North Meath felt “stranded” by the pre-2020 General Election change, speaking ahead of the Electoral Commission announcement, Deputy Smith told the Celt: “I hold a very strong opinion on this. I led a very strong campaign to have Cavan-Monaghan reunited previously when West Cavan was carved off, a campaign supported by the Celt, and I still feel there should be minimum disruption to county boundaries.”

Deputy Smith believes that populations taken out of boundary areas of tradition “don’t have the same attachment as others do. It’s happening now with North Meath, and it happened when we lost West Cavan. Just because West Cavan was in with Donegal didn’t mean those people stopped coming to me to make representations. They kept coming.”

Considering new ratios also, Deputy Smith is of the opinion that Cavan-Monaghan has population enough to hold onto five seats in its own right.

“We have the population required now to hold onto five seats, and I know from speaking with the people of North Meath they don’t want to be part of Cavan-Monaghan, that much is fully understandable.”

Since May, the Commission has reviewed every constituency, calculating for one TD per 20,000 to 30,000 people. The terms of reference under which the commission operates state that ‘the breaching of county boundaries shall be avoided as far as is practicable’.

Along with North Meath in with Cavan-Monaghan, the commission must also consider how best to to manage the boundaries of Galway West, which contains parts of Co Mayo; and Sligo-Leitrim, which contains parts of Donegal and Roscommon.

There are at present nine three-seat constituencies, 17 four-seaters and 13 five-seaters, and the areas of highest growth, according to Census 2022, are predominantly in the east of the country: Longford (+14%); Meath (+13%); Fingal and Kildare (+11%), Wexford (9%) and Carlow (9%).

Sinn Féin’s Pauline Tully would be “surprised” if Cavan-Monaghan wasn’t reunited as a single constituency, saying that she felt for the people of North Meath as she did before for the people of West Cavan when the Boundary Commission split it.

“Nobody likes it when they split a county. I mean it happened a few years ago when West Cavan got put in with Leitrim, Sligo and Donegal, and I know the people there, when that happened, felt they weren’t really represented because they didn’t even know who their TDs were.

“It’s the same I’m sure for the people in North Meath, with no representative from there. They’re all Cavan and Monaghan based. So I’d be happen to see counties reunited, if that, and not split. I expect Cavan and Monaghan will be one five seater constituency because the population has risen, I’d be surprised if it was anything different.”

Mulling the prospect even of a reduction in the number of seats ahead of the next General Election, she says: “I think that would require splitting part of the county and linking it with somewhere else. There would be a lot of upset at that, definitely.”

With no information to hand, and no indication either as to what might be announced, Fianna Fáil’s Niamh Smyth contemplates the prospect of Cavan and Monaghan standing on their own, with three seats a piece. “Stranger things have happened!” she said.

Ultimately, Deputy Smyth says that politicians and the public will “have to work” with what is announced.

Commission officials have also been tasked with examining the constituency boundaries for the European Parliament election, which is set to take place in June 2024.

Ireland is expected to receive one additional seat, but this needs to be formally ratified.