Huge swing left since 2016
This 2020 election in Cavan-Monaghan will be remembered for the massive swing in voter sentiment away from the main two parties and left towards Sinn Fein and others.
To quote the famed coinage commonly attributed to Manchester United's former manager Sir Alex Ferguson, we’re entering ‘Squeaky Bum Time’ for several candidates with 93% of boxes open and things looking like its to play for with the final two seats.
Streaking ahead with 241 out of 260 boxes opened, is Sinn Fein’s Matt Carthy coming in with almost 23% of the overall vote (15,117).
Compared to the 2016 election, Matt Carthy looks set to poll far higher even than the man he is set to replace in Dail Eireann, the now retired Caoimhghín Ó Caoláin (17.18%).
Behind him, and at no great surprise, is Fine Gael’s Heather Humphreys who is currently sitting, with boxes still to open, at 17.88% of the overall first preference vote (11,825).
Both look on course to surpass what is expected to be a quota of close to 13,000 even at this stage.
If both do it will have a significant impact, both good and bad, for their respective running mates in this election.
Sandra McIntyre, who sits on a lowly 1,140 first preference votes (1.72% overall) looks likely, according to some tallies, will benefit well from her Number 2’s better than TP O’Reilly (7.01%/ 4,636), but the surplus will be at a minimum. Fine Gael could be left ruing the decision not to put former TD and Senator Joe O'Reilly on the ticket, who on his own picked up 11.21% or 6,545 in 2016.
Pauline Tully (14.07%/ 9,303) will do understandably well from Matt Carthy’s extra votes. Again, she is doing substantially better than former Sinn Fein candidate Kathryn Reilly did in 2016 with all boxes tallied (10.42%/ 6,085).
All eyes however will be on election dark horse, Aontu’s Sarah O’Reilly, who presently sits on 5.36% (3,547), and Fianna Fail’s Robbie Gallagher (6.92%/ 4,579).
Both candidates are just behind next nearest candidates, Fianna Fail’s Brendan Smith (9.95%/ 6,580) and Niamh Smyth (8.08%/ 5,343).
Brendan Smith made significant ground back on all rivals when boxes in west Cavan were opened shortly after midday.
Both though are down compared to the healthy positions they held five years-ago, when Brendan Smith was at 14.99% of the vote after all boxes were counted (8,755), and Niamh Smyth (10.66%/ 6,226).
The also rans in this election is a good showing for the Green Party’s Tate Donnelly (3.46%/ 2,286), almost double the vote achieved in 2016 by candidate Michael Callaghan (2.10%/ 1,225).
Next is Labour’s Liam van der Spek (1.36%/ 902). There was no Labour candidate in 2016, however a little over six months ago in the local elections in Cavan-Belturbet, he tallied 591 first preference votes
There is a similar outcome too for Solidarity/ People Before Profit’s Emmett Smith with (1.12%/ 738), whereas in the locals he earned 498 first preference votes before being eliminated in Count 4.
Last on the list is Monaghan-based Independent candidate Joseph Duffy (0.22%/ 145), who when he ran in General Election in 2011, received 129 first preferences (0.18%).
For more news from the count centre, check out our live blog: